How Dangote Refinery Helped Drop Nigeria’s Petrol Imports by 54%

When the National Bureau of Statistics published its Q1 2025 trade figures, the message was clear, Nigeria’s petrol import bill dropped by 54% year-on-year, falling from $2.6 billion in Q1 2024 to $1.2 billion. For a nation that once relied on imports for nearly 90% of its fuel, this marks a new phase in domestic energy security.

Dangote Refinery Drives Down Import Bills

Dangote Petroleum Refinery has been producing with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, enough to cover roughly 60 percent of national petrol demand as of Q1 2025.

After starting full-scale operations in late 2024, the facility began pumping out over 30 million litres of petrol per day by January 2025, operating at more than 85 percent utilisation.

This domestic output displaced approximately US$ $1.4 billion in potential imports during the quarter, cutting the import bill to its lowest level since 2020.

Daily Import Volumes in Freefall

Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority shows that daily petrol imports fell from 44.6 million litres in August 2024 to 14.7 million litres by mid-April 2025,a staggering 67 percent reduction.

Over eight months, that equates to 30 million fewer litres of imported petrol each day, easing pressure on Nigeria’s foreign-exchange reserves and shielding consumers from volatile global prices.

Local Production Surges to Keep the Lights On

Even as imports declined, total petrol supply remained close to Nigeria’s 50 million-litre daily consumption target. In November 2024, combined supply peaked at 56 million litres per day, before settling around 51.5 million litres in early 2025.

The Port Harcourt refinery restart and the rise of modular plants contributed to a 670 percent jump in local output, from near zero in mid-2024 to 26.2 million litres per day by April 2025.

Securing the Future of Fuel Supply

While the Dangote Refinery shoulders the bulk of production gains, a growing network of modular refineries and upgraded state facilities is reinforcing resilience.

Regulators emphasise the need for robust security around oil infrastructure, calling on communities, security agencies, and traditional leaders to guard pipelines and plants against sabotage.

What Lies Ahead for Nigerian Consumers

With domestic production now accounting for the majority of petrol demand, Nigeria’s energy landscape is undergoing a transformation. Lower import bills free up capital for refinery maintenance and expansion.

As Dangote Refinery edges toward its full 650,000 bpd capacity and new modular units come online, import dependency could dip below 20 percent by year-end. For Nigerian drivers, that means more stable pump prices and fewer fuel shortages, proof that investing in home-grown refining is paying off.