Ballon d’Or 2025: Top Contenders for the Crown

With the 69th Ballon d’Or set for tonight at the Théâtre du Châtelet in Paris, the men’s and women’s races have narrowed to a handful of clear frontrunners backed by data, trophies, and narrative momentum.

France Football’s voters tend to prioritise (1) individual performance and consistency, (2) team success in elite competitions (Champions League, Euros/Copa, league titles), and (3) a player’s “impact” in big moments..

Ousmane Dembélé (Paris Saint-Germain)

A surgically timed peak year: Ligue 1 title, Champions League winner, and a torrent of direct goal contributions across competitions. Several outlets now frame the award as “Dembélé’s to lose,” reflecting both team silverware and elite end-product. The ceremony timing and media temperature support his candidacy as the consensus favourite.

Harry Kane (Bayern Munich)

A scoring avalanche across the league and Europe, plus a long-awaited major club title, keeps Kane in the argument. The combination of volume (goals per 90), match-defining burst,s and the Bundesliga crown gives him one of the cleanest statistical dossiers among pure No. 9s.

Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)

La Liga top scorer in his first season in Spain, and decisive nights in Europe create a firm—but not definitive case. In a year when narrative favours multi-trophy winners, Mbappé’s candidacy hinges on voters’ weighting of domestic dominance versus continental outcomes.

Raphinha (Barcelona)

A treble (La Liga, Copa del Rey, Supercopa) and massive Champions League output thrust the Brazilian into genuine top-five territory. If voters emphasise Champions League production, his file is stronger than casual observers expect.

Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)

Premier League title, Golden Boot and historic contribution numbers keep Salah perennially relevant. Even with a relatively early Champions League exit, the sheer domestic impact sustains an outside shot, especially with voters who weigh league performance heavily.

Wildcard: Lamine Yamal (Barcelona)

A breakout year at 18 with decisive club contributions and national-team moments. He profiles more as a top-10 lock than outright favourite,unless voters want to make a statement about generational rise.