CBN Projects Stronger Growth and Lower Inflation in 2026

Nigeria’s economy is beginning to show signs of stability, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria. The CBN says 2026 could bring stronger growth, slower inflation, and higher external reserves, as recent monetary and economic reforms start to take effect.

In its latest outlook, the bank projects GDP growth of 4.49 percent in 2026 and expects average inflation to ease to 12.94 percent. It also forecasts external reserves will rise to 51.04 billion dollars, up from 45.01 billion dollars in 2025 and 40.19 billion dollars in 2024. The CBN links this to higher crude oil output, more local refining, stronger diaspora remittances, and increased capital inflows.

CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso says the bank has focused on rebuilding confidence through clearer policies and better transparency. The CBN believes that if reserves keep rising and foreign exchange supply improves, it will have more room to support the FX market and reduce pressure on the naira.

However, economists say the bigger issue is whether these improvements will reflect in people’s daily lives. They note that while inflation is slowing, many Nigerians are still under pressure, and the benefits of reforms may take time to reach households.

The CBN also acknowledges that risks remain, including fiscal pressure, external shocks, unstable capital flows, and possible oil production disruptions, which could affect the outlook if not managed well.