How West Africa Could Lose 10% of Its Cocoa Output in 2025/26

Despite brief improvements in weather patterns, West Africa is once again on the verge of a troubling cocoa harvest season. 

Experts in the cocoa industry are warning that the region, which supplies the majority of the world’s cocoa, could see a 10% drop in production during the 2025/26 season. 

This looming decline reflects deeper structural issues that favorable weather alone cannot fix.

Signs of a third bad season

Cocoa production in West Africa has already suffered two disappointing harvests in a row, and early signs suggest the next season might be even worse. Pod counters independent assessors employed by exporters and trading firms have begun their annual crop inspections across Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon. 

Their field reports, gathered ahead of the official October harvest kick-off, paint a worrying picture.

According to these early assessments, flower and cherelle (young pod) mortality rates in Ivory Coast the world’s top cocoa producer are significantly higher than anticipated, with some areas seeing 15% to 20% more losses than forecasted in May. 

These small pods are vital indicators of what the main harvest will look like. Their premature loss means smaller yields months down the line.

One pod counter described the situation bluntly: “It’s not catastrophic, but the signs are clear. Output will fall.” While the final figures won’t be available until later in the year, the consensus among traders and experts is that West Africa’s total cocoa output will shrink by around 10% reversing earlier hopes of a slight recovery.

What’s causing the decline?

It’s not just the weather. The problems go much deeper. West African cocoa farms are grappling with a cocktail of challenges: aging tree stocks, persistent plant diseases, and erratic climate patterns that are messing with flowering cycles. 

In addition, the spread of illegal small-scale gold mining across rural areas is taking a toll on cocoa farms destroying fertile land and luring young workers away from agriculture.

Ivory Coast, which used to produce well over 2 million metric tons of cocoa annually, is now on track to end this season at around 1.6 million tons. Ghana’s story is even more dramatic. 

Once capable of harvesting over a million tons, the country barely crossed the 500,000-ton mark last season. While Ghana’s cocoa board has projected a slight recovery to 600,000 tons, international estimates are less optimistic.

One industry insider noted, “Ghana is dealing with too many structural issues, farm mismanagement, disease, and poor inputs. It’s unlikely the country will return to its old production levels any time soon.”

What you should know

The implications of this forecast go beyond West Africa. The previous two years of poor harvests already drove cocoa prices to record highs on the international market. 

Although prices have slightly eased in recent months, another disappointing harvest could reignite volatility, affecting chocolate manufacturers and consumers worldwide.

This drop in output could also squeeze incomes for millions of smallholder farmers across the region, many of whom rely solely on cocoa for their livelihoods. With production costs rising and yields falling, the sector faces a sustainability crisis.