If Tinubu Says Reforms are Working, Why are Nigerians Still Angry?

Nigeria is currently living with two economic narratives that appear to contradict each other, yet both can be true at the same time. 

On one side, the Federal Government points to improving headline indicators. On the other hand, millions of Nigerians say daily life has become harder and more expensive. This gap between macroeconomic progress and household welfare is a major reason public anger has not subsided.

Government officials argue that key reforms are beginning to yield results. They cite stronger foreign reserves, easing inflation, improved exchange rate stability, and higher oil output as evidence that the economy is stabilising after a turbulent period. 

The administration’s position is that difficult decisions were unavoidable and that the country is now starting to see the benefits.

However, many Nigerians experience the economy through food prices, transport costs, rent, school fees, and healthcare bills. In that lived reality, the situation remains severe. Basic staples cost far more than they did in 2023. 

Transport has become significantly more expensive. Wages have not kept pace with rising costs. Poverty and hardship remain widespread, and for many families, survival has become a weekly struggle. In this context, government claims of progress can feel distant and even provocative.

The Reforms Were Real, and Politically Costly

It is important to acknowledge that the administration implemented major reforms that previous governments had long debated but avoided. The most significant was the removal of the fuel subsidy in May 2023, a policy that had become extremely expensive and difficult to sustain. 

The subsidy kept petrol prices artificially low, but it also created opportunities for abuse and rent seeking, while placing enormous pressure on public finances.

The government also moved toward restructuring the foreign exchange system, which for years had operated with multiple exchange rates and heavy administrative controls. 

That arrangement encouraged arbitrage, reduced transparency, and deterred investment. Standardising the system and improving price discovery were presented as necessary steps toward restoring credibility.

These decisions were bold, and they addressed structural problems that had weakened Nigeria’s economic foundations. The challenge is that the immediate consequences were harsh, and the cushioning was widely seen as insufficient.

The Pain Arrived Quickly, and at Scale

Once the fuel subsidy ended, petrol prices rose sharply. Because fuel costs affect transportation, logistics, and production, the shock quickly fed through to the prices of almost everything. Food inflation intensified, household purchasing power fell, and many small businesses faced higher operating costs.

Even if inflation later moderates, the public experience does not automatically improve. A slower rate of inflation does not mean prices are falling. It means prices are rising more slowly, often from a level that has already become unaffordable for many. 

For households that have already adjusted downward, reducing meals, postponing medical treatment, or pulling children from private schools, the damage feels permanent.

Why Better Numbers Do Not Yet Feel Like Relief

Some macro indicators can improve even if the average citizen’s standard of living does not. This happens when growth is concentrated in sectors that do not employ large numbers of people, or when gains do not translate into lower costs and higher incomes.

In Nigeria’s case, sectors such as oil and gas, banking, and parts of the technology ecosystem may perform better without significantly reducing nationwide unemployment or underemployment. 

Meanwhile, manufacturing continues to face constraints, including high energy costs and foreign exchange pressures. Agriculture, which supports many livelihoods, has been affected by insecurity in some food-producing regions, disrupting supply and keeping food prices elevated.

As a result, government can show positive movement in reserves or exchange stability while households feel no meaningful relief. For citizens, economic progress is not measured by statistics. It is measured by whether they can afford food, transport, and basic services.

Public Anger Is Also About Trust and Fairness

Another reason anger persists is the perception of unequal sacrifice. When government removes subsidies and asks citizens to endure hardship, people expect visible evidence that savings are being redirected toward public welfare through roads, hospitals, education, security, and targeted support for vulnerable households.

Where relief programmes exist, many Nigerians remain sceptical about coverage, effectiveness, and transparency. When citizens also observe continued displays of government luxury, large convoys, and political spending, it reinforces the belief that hardship is not shared. 

In difficult times, perception matters. If citizens believe the burden falls mainly on the poor while the well-connected remain protected, resentment deepens.

Concerns about selective accountability add to this frustration. Many Nigerians have long believed that anti-corruption efforts are often uneven, and that perception becomes more damaging when people are being asked to accept painful reforms in the name of national recovery.

What Has Worked, and Why It Still Has Not Changed Public Mood

Some policies introduced during this period have had real value. Improvements to the tax framework that protect low-income earners and provide relief to small businesses can support inclusion. Efforts to expand education financing, including student loan initiatives, can improve long-term opportunities.

However, these measures often take time to translate into broad relief. They may also arrive after households have already absorbed years of price increases. For many Nigerians, especially those in the informal economy, assistance feels either too limited, too delayed, or too difficult to access. As long as hardship remains dominant, isolated gains will not shift public sentiment.