IMF Raises Nigeria’s 2026 Growth Forecast to 4.4%.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its growth projection for Nigeria to 4.4% in 2026, pointing to improving macroeconomic conditions and continued reform momentum.

The Fund announced the revision in its January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, titled “Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces.” The new 2026 estimate is 0.2 percentage points higher than the IMF’s projection published in October 2025.

Under the IMF’s updated outlook, Nigeria’s economy is expected to sustain a gradual expansion, rising from 4.1% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025, before strengthening further to 4.4% in 2026.

Regional and global context

The IMF said Nigeria’s improved outlook reflects a broader expected pickup across sub-Saharan Africa, where growth is projected to reach 4.6% in 2026 and 2027. The Fund linked this to ongoing macroeconomic stabilisation efforts and reforms across major economies in the region.

Globally, the IMF projected growth of 3.3% in 2026, arguing that the world economy remains resilient despite lingering uncertainties. It noted that downside pressures from shifting trade policies are being partly balanced by stronger investment in technology and artificial intelligence.

Commodity prices and key risks for Nigeria

For Nigeria, the IMF flagged energy prices as a major factor shaping the 2026 outlook. It expects energy commodity prices to fall by about 7% in 2026, largely due to weaker global demand.

Still, the Fund suggested the decline in oil prices could be moderated by a “soft floor” supported by coordinated production management by OPEC+ and crude stockpiling by China, which may limit how far prices fall.

Despite the upgrade, the IMF cautioned that risks remain tilted to the downside. It highlighted potential threats, including escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly around the Middle East and Ukraine, that could disrupt supply chains, as well as renewed trade frictions that could increase global uncertainty.

The Fund also pointed to high public debt and persistent fiscal deficits as vulnerabilities that could push up long-term borrowing costs.

Policy direction: rebuild buffers, sustain reforms

To keep growth on track, the IMF urged Nigerian authorities to rebuild fiscal buffers and move faster on structural reforms. It also stressed that central bank independence remains important for macroeconomic stability, especially in a volatile global environment.

On fiscal policy, the Fund advised that any discretionary support should be carefully targeted and designed with clear end dates, to ensure temporary interventions do not become permanent fiscal burdens.

The IMF’s bottom line is that Nigeria’s ability to deliver stronger growth in 2026 will depend on consistent reform implementation and the country’s capacity to absorb both domestic and external shocks as the global economy continues to adjust.