Nigerians are Cutting Back on Eating Out as Restaurant Visits Drop By 28%

Nigeria’s inflation may be easing, but households are still cutting back. New receipt data shows a sharp drop in restaurant visits as Nigerians embrace home cooking, compare prices, switch brands, and plan shopping trips to stretch every naira.

A new consumer report by Shoppoint Rewards, a Nigerian cashback and receipt-based rewards platform, says restaurant and fast-food visits dropped by 28 per cent in 2025 as household budgets shrank.

What the Receipts Say

Shoppoint’s 2025 “Invisible Economy” report is built on something most formal economic data doesn’t see clearly, which is the small, everyday decisions people make when money is tight.

The company analysed about three million verified shopping receipts from more than 85,000 shoppers across 10 states in 2025. It estimates that those receipts reflect roughly N45 billion to N52 billion in consumer spending. The sampling was spread evenly across the months, giving a steady view of how shopping habits shifted as the year progressed.

There is a key difference between receipts and bank transaction records. Bank records can show where money went, but they don’t show what people actually bought. Receipts reveal the real trade-offs: the cheaper alternative, the smaller size, the brand swap, the items removed from the basket, and the “let’s manage at home” choices.

That is why the report focuses on what it calls the “invisible economy”, the daily, practical economy that families live in, even when headline indicators start to improve.

Eating Out is Now a “Luxury Line” Item

The sharp 28 per cent decline in restaurant and fast-food visits means discretionary spending is under pressure. Eating out is one of the easiest things to cut because it’s not usually essential. As transport, rent, school fees, electricity, cooking gas, data, and basic food items continue to rise, the occasional meal out quickly becomes negotiable.

For food businesses, this matters because a falling inflation rate does not automatically mean customers will return. Even when prices slow, families often retain the survival habits they developed during the toughest months. Home cooking becomes a routine, not a temporary plan.

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Grocery Shopping Surges Despite Price Hike

While many Nigerians are visiting restaurants less, grocery shopping is staying strong.

The report says prices rose by an average of 23 per cent, yet grocery purchases remained resilient. Groceries accounted for 36 per cent of all receipts analysed, representing about N18.7 billion in spending, according to the report’s estimates.

This is the clearest picture of priority spending. Food essentials, in particular, are treated like a non-negotiable line item. People still need to eat, even if it means changing what they buy, where they buy it, and how often they buy it.

Nigerians are Becoming More Price-sensitive

Beyond the fewer restaurant visits, the report highlights smaller patterns that reveal how people are coping.

A large share of grocery shoppers, between 67 and 72 per cent, compared prices before buying. That level of checking suggests shoppers are no longer shopping on ‘habit’. They are shopping with calculations.

Brand loyalty is also taking a hit. About 45 per cent of shoppers switched household brands when prices crossed the N5,000 mark. That threshold is the point at which many people stop trying to ‘maintain standards’ and start searching for alternatives to keep the home running.

Shopping has also become more organised around timing. Weekends dominate grocery activity, with 58 per cent of grocery receipts recorded on Saturdays and Sundays. Many households appear to be planning around when they have time, when they can move around, and when they can concentrate purchases into fewer trips.

Another interesting detail is that bakery purchases peaked on Friday evenings, suggesting families stock up as the weekend begins, preparing snacks, breakfast items, or quick meals that can stretch through Saturday and Sunday.

Shoppers are also combining categories more often. The report suggests people bought from an average of 3.2 to 3.8 categories per visit, and groceries and drinks appeared together in 72 per cent of combined purchases. This points to consolidation: fewer trips, fuller baskets, tighter planning.

How the Official Inflation Story Fits In

Official data support the idea that inflation pressures are easing, at least on paper. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that food inflation slowed for a fifth consecutive month in December, easing to 10.84 per cent from 29.6 per cent in January.

But households don’t measure progress only by percentages. They measure it by whether their monthly budget can cover the same level of living as last year. Even if inflation is slowing, many prices remain high relative to what families used to pay, and incomes have not risen at the same pace for many people.

What This Means for Restaurants and Fast-food Operators

For operators in Nigeria’s food service market, this doesn’t mean the sector is doomed. It means the playbook has changed. When people cook more at home, restaurants have to work harder to earn a visit. 

More than ever, restaurants must reconsider pricing, portion size, family bundles, and loyalty rewards. The “impulse buy” customer is thinner than before.

It also means restaurants may take longer to bounce back, even if inflation is slowing. A fall in inflation is not the same as a rise in disposable income. Until more households feel financially secure again, eating out will continue to compete with the cheaper option of cooking at home.