Nigeria’s Current Account Surplus to Reach $18.81bn in 2026 — CBN

Nigeria’s external position is expected to improve further in 2026, with the country’s current account surplus projected to rise to $18.81 billion, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). 

The surplus is estimated to represent 11.16 per cent of GDP, reflecting stronger export earnings and rising inflows from abroad.

The projection is contained in the CBN’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria, which shows a modest but steady improvement from the estimated $16.94 billion surplus (10.94 per cent of GDP) expected in 2025. 

While external inflows are forecast to grow, the apex bank notes that pressures from imports, services payments and investment income outflows will remain.

Exports drive the outlook

A major driver of the stronger current account position is Nigeria’s goods account, which the CBN expects to improve on the back of higher export receipts. Export earnings are projected to rise to $58.26 billion in 2026, up from $54.59 billion in 2025.

According to the bank, both oil and non-oil exports are expected to contribute to this growth. Oil export earnings are projected to benefit from increased domestic crude oil production, supported by improved security around oil installations and renewed investment in the sector.

On the non-oil side, exports of agricultural products and fertilisers are expected to continue expanding. The CBN said government initiatives aimed at strengthening Nigeria’s export value chain should help sustain this growth. 

These include the recently launched National Export Trading Company, designed to address long-standing gaps in the export process, and the National Intellectual Property Policy, which is expected to support creative and knowledge-based exports.

Imports and services costs remain a drag

Despite the positive export outlook, Nigeria’s import bill is also expected to rise. Total imports are projected to increase to $43.27 billion in 2026, from $39.92 billion in 2025, reflecting stronger demand for capital goods as economic activity expands.

The services account is expected to remain a major source of pressure. The CBN projects the services deficit to widen to $13.68 billion in 2026, compared with $12.80 billion in 2025. 

This is largely due to higher payments for business and transport services, driven by increased demand for research and development and rising freight costs linked to higher non-oil imports.

Similarly, the primary income account is expected to stay in deficit at $8.62 billion, reflecting higher interest and dividend payments to foreign investors. 

The CBN noted that attractive domestic yields are likely to continue drawing in foreign portfolio investment, which, while positive for capital inflows, also leads to higher income outflows over time.

Remittances provide strong support

One of the brightest spots in the outlook is the secondary income account, which includes remittances and transfers. The CBN projects a surplus of $26.13 billion in 2026, up from $23.82 billion in 2025.

Stronger diaspora remittances and higher transfers are expected to drive this increase, with some inflows also linked to election-related activities during the period.

What it means for Nigeria

The projected improvement in Nigeria’s current account balance reflects gains from oil sector reforms, export diversification efforts, and sustained remittance inflows. It suggests a more resilient external position, even as the economy grows.

However, the outlook also underscores ongoing structural challenges. Rising import dependence, widening services deficits, and increasing income outflows tied to foreign investment remain key risks that could limit further improvements if not addressed.

Recent data highlights these mixed trends. Nigeria recorded a $3.42 billion current account surplus in Q3 2025, down from $5.81 billion in Q2 2025, pointing to growing external obligations despite stronger oil earnings. 

At the same time, foreign direct investment inflows jumped sharply to $720 million in Q3 2025, signalling renewed investor interest but also future income outflows.

Overall, the CBN’s projection paints a cautiously optimistic picture, one where stronger exports and remittances support Nigeria’s external balance, even as underlying pressures continue to test its sustainability.