OPEC+ Output Plan Supply Could Cut Nigeria’s Oil Revenue in 2025

OPEC+ is increasing oil production, leading to lower prices in the market. If they slip under Nigeria’s $75-per-barrel target, the budget and the naira come under pressure.

OPEC+ has agreed to add around 137,000 barrels per day from October as it accelerates the unwind of a previously deferred 1.65 million bpd cut. The alliance says additions will continue month-to-month into 2026 if the market allows. Prices have already softened into the mid-$60s area in recent sessions.

Abuja framed the 2025 budget around $75/bbl and 2.06 million bpd of output. But Nigeria’s premium grades, Bonny Light, Forcados, Qua Iboe, have recently traded near $70–71, trimming the cushion above the benchmark. 

Actual crude production has hovered closer to ~1.5–1.56 million bpd in recent months, limiting quota leverage and cash generation.

Budget pressure points

Lower realised oil prices narrow Federation Account inflows and strain dollar supply, oil still dominates FX earnings. That raises the odds of wider deficits, more domestic borrowing, or deeper spending cuts if prices stay under the benchmark. Both local and external watchers have urged budget recalibration for a lower-price world.

Naira and Inflation Channel

Softer oil receipts typically mean tighter FX for importers, which can feed into costs for fuel, transport, and raw materials. Headline inflation has eased from earlier peaks but remains elevated, leaving little room for a fresh price shock from FX scarcity or logistics bills.

Officials are lobbying for a higher quota on the back of modest output gains and better pipeline security, while pushing refinery and upstream fixes to lift volumes and quality.

But in the near term, price, not quota, is the binding constraint; deeper demand softness into Q4 would keep a lid on rally attempts even if local barrels tick up.

Lower oil receipts can delay capital projects, keep FX tight for businesses that import inputs, and complicate plans to stabilise the naira.

For a reforming economy trying to rebuild confidence, the difference between $65–70 crude and a $75 benchmark is the gap between a manageable year and another round of hard trade-offs.