Tinubu 2027: How a Divided Opposition Could Secure Another Term 

With the 2027 general elections approaching, the All Progressives Congress has already lined up behind President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for a second term, pitching continuity of reforms as its case to voters. 

Meanwhile, the Opposition leaders have begun moves to coordinate, including unveiling a coalition platform under the African Democratic Congress banner with prominent figures such as Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar. 

The stated goal is to prevent a de facto one-party race in 2027, though the structures, rules and a single ticket are still to be finalised.

Why Fragmentation Helps the APC

Nigeria’s 2023 result showed how split opposition votes can deliver victory to a party with a disciplined nationwide base. 

Official tallies placed Tinubu ahead in a three-way contest as opposition support was divided across regions and demographics. 

If key blocs again run separately in 2027, the APC’s incumbency advantages, agenda-setting, visibility, fundraising and ground operations will be difficult to overcome.

Tinubu’s Advantage in the Opposition

People’s Democratic Party in mid-July, a development that reshaped calculations inside the traditional opposition camp. 

Around the same time, Atiku and Peter Obi fronted a coalition operating via the ADC platform, with an interim leadership structure announced while talks continue on candidate selection and power-sharing. 

Labour Party remains distracted by leadership disputes that have consumed time and resources and created uncertainty over command and control.

Within the New Nigeria Peoples Party, internal fissures persist, including disagreements over Rabiu Kwankwaso’s status, complicating negotiations for any broader opposition alignment.

What a Credible Challenge Would Require

First, the coalition would need to converge early on a single presidential and vice-presidential slate, backed by a clear, written pact on policy priorities, appointments and dispute resolution. The 2013 opposition merger that produced the APC remains the clearest template for how alignment can translate into national competitiveness. 

Second, internal rows must be settled,or ring-fenced, before campaign season to avoid court injunctions, parallel structures and mixed messaging that erode voter confidence. Third, the opposition must invest in a real ground game: ward-level organisers, polling-unit agents, training for results collation, and legal readiness for election-day contingencies. 

Finally, a unifying economic narrative is essential. With cost-of-living pressures top of mind, a credible plan on prices, jobs, power, security and financing, communicated consistently to first-time and disillusioned voters, will be critical to broadening support beyond core bases.