Tinubu–Shell Talks Raise Prospect of $20bn New Investment in Nigeria

Nigeria’s presidency says talks with Shell have moved forward on the Bonga Southwest deepwater project, a deal often described as a “$20bn” investment opportunity.

According to the presidency, the government has agreed on targeted incentives that are tied to actual spending and project milestones, and the measures are now being prepared for formal publication through the gazette.

This means the government is offering specific tax or fiscal relief that is meant to make the project more attractive, but only if the investment happens.

The presidency also said it expects Shell to take a Final Investment Decision (FID) within the first term of the current administration. An FID is the moment a company commits the large capital needed to build, drill, and connect the project, after studies and approvals are completed.

Bonga is one of Nigeria’s well-known deepwater assets, and Bonga Southwest is positioned as an extension that can add fresh barrels once developed. Deepwater projects take time, but they can deliver meaningful production increases because the reservoirs are often large and the output per well can be high.

Higher crude output can improve government revenue, raise foreign exchange inflows, and support the balance of payments. It can also help Nigeria protect market share, especially when other producers are competing for investment capital.

Still, incentives alone do not solve every risk. Investors also watch contract stability, regulatory certainty, security, and the ability to move equipment and people efficiently. For the government, the key test will be whether the incentives remain “investment-linked” in practice, with clear rules and transparent reporting.