Why Do Prices Keep Changing in Nigeria’s Commodity Market?

Walking through a local market often means hearing the same question over and over again: “Why is this more expensive than last week?” From maize to rice, palm oil to onions, commodity prices now swing so frequently that volatility feels like the new normal.

But this isn’t just about unpredictable rainfall or temporary scarcity. What we’re seeing is the result of deep, structural shifts in how Nigeria’s commodity market operates.

The End of Predictable Seasons

Traditionally, commodity prices in Nigeria followed a seasonal rhythm, prices dropped during harvest, usually around October to December, and climbed again in the dry months when supply tightened. 

But recent years have disrupted that flow. Buyers no longer wait patiently for prices to fall during harvest. Instead, many now rush to buy early, panic-buying in fear that they may miss out or face worse inflation later.

This fear-driven behavior, fueled by past experiences of inflation and shortages, is distorting the market. 

Companies are no longer responding to current supply and demand, they’re reacting to what they think will happen next. It’s a mindset shift that’s pushing prices higher, faster, and more often.

Reforms that changed the game

A major turning point came in 2023, when Nigeria scrapped fuel subsidies and allowed the naira to float. These were bold economic decisions aimed at long-term stability, but in the short term, they created a shockwave. 

Transportation costs surged. Energy prices ballooned. And with the naira losing value, importing goods became significantly more expensive.

The result? Nigerian producers found themselves squeezed. The cost of bringing food to market tripled for some. 

Meanwhile, the weaker naira gave a short-term boost to exporters, but exposed how fragile local supply chains had become without consistent infrastructure and policy support.

When demand beats supply every time

One of the hardest truths in the Nigerian commodity market today is this: supply rarely catches up with demand. Whether it’s food for households, grain for livestock feed, or raw materials for manufacturing, there simply isn’t enough to go around.

Farming remains heavily dependent on rainfall, and irrigation investment is still low. So when the rains are delayed or disrupted as they often are yields drop. That means even less supply in a market already struggling to keep up.

Commodities now move as a pack

Another major shift is the way commodity prices now move together. In the past, a spike in the price of rice didn’t necessarily mean that maize or sorghum would follow. 

Today, they do. Prices across grains especially those used in animal feed now move in clusters. This means that a shock to one crop (like bad weather affecting maize) can ripple across the entire sector.

This tight interconnection adds another layer of risk. It’s no longer just about watching your own commodity, it’s about understanding how others might affect it.

The global market is now a local force

For years, Nigeria tried to shield its farmers with import bans and restrictions. But with recent policy changes, the walls are coming down. Imported rice, wheat, and maize are now influencing local prices directly. 

While this can ease inflation in the short term, it also exposes Nigerian farmers to competition from countries where farming is heavily subsidized.

It’s a tough spot, cheap imports help consumers but could wipe out local producers who simply can’t match those prices.

Real data and not guesswork is the new edge

The message from analysts and market experts is clear, surviving this new landscape requires smarter strategies. Procurement teams can no longer rely on one contract or one buying window. They need real-time data, flexible agreements, and rapid-response planning.

Intelligence, knowing when to buy, what to expect, and how to hedge against risk is fast becoming the most valuable resource in the market.

What comes next?

Nigeria’s commodity market is at a crossroads. Old habits, waiting for harvest, hoping for price drops, depending on fixed-price contracts are no longer enough. Price signals are messier. 

Risks are more permanent. And success now depends not just on producing food or moving goods, but on how fast businesses can adapt.

In a market where everything changes fast, from policies to climate to currency, one thing is clear: those who treat information like a commodity may be the only ones who can afford to stay in the game.