Why the Super Eagles Might not Beat Libya on Tuesday

The Super Eagles of Nigeria face a tricky test in their upcoming 2025 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) qualifying match against Libya. Although they secured a 1-0 win against the Mediterranean Knights in Uyo last Friday, the return leg in Benghazi might turn out to be a different challenge altogether. 

While the Super Eagles are the favorites on paper, the situation in Libya might present several challenges that could make Tuesday’s game difficult. Here are key reasons why Nigeria might struggle to win on Tuesday.

Biased officiating

Refereeing in North Africa has long been an issue for visiting teams. During the first leg in Uyo, the Super Eagles were already at the receiving end of questionable decisions. Ademola Lookman had a legitimate goal disallowed for offside, and the Atalanta forward was denied a penalty earlier in the game.

In North African countries, teams are often known to benefit from officiating, especially when playing at home. The Super Eagles should expect more of this in Benghazi, and they will need to stay focused and composed, even when decisions don’t go their way.

Pressure from the Mediterranean knights

Libya may be last in the group standings, but that doesn’t mean they are pushovers. In fact, their position on the table makes them even more dangerous. Desperation can fuel extraordinary performances, and the Knights will be looking to grab all three points in this match to keep their slim AFCON qualification hopes alive.

In the first leg, Libya showed they can be a pressing team capable of troubling Nigeria’s defense, led by Williams Troost-Ekong. Expect the Libyan forwards to put continuous pressure on Nigeria’s backline, keeping them on the defensive for much of the game. If the Super Eagles aren’t careful, they could find themselves on the back foot early on.

Hostile crowd

The atmosphere in North African stadiums is notorious for being hostile to visiting teams. Fans act like a “12th player,” cheering their team loudly while doing everything to make the visitors feel unwelcome. 

The Libyan fans will be eager to capitalize on fabricated claims of poor treatment in Nigeria, further fueling their support for their team.

Moses Simon, one of Nigeria’s key players, has already mentioned that the team is mentally prepared for the hostility they expect in Libya. But even with mental readiness, the crowd’s influence could still be a significant factor in determining the outcome.

Libyan Football Federation president resigned

The resignation of the Libyan Football Federation president, Abdul Hakim Al-Shalmani, just days before the match, adds a unique twist to the game. The resignation has thrown Libyan football into chaos, with some players reportedly snubbing call-ups due to ongoing disputes within the federation.

This situation could either demoralize the Libyan team or motivate them to rally together and perform better. If the players see this match as an opportunity to prove themselves amid the chaos, the Super Eagles will face a determined side, driven by both pride and politics.

Libya might have early goals

Libya is expected to come out strong and aggressive, looking for early goals to unsettle the Nigerian team. Scoring early would allow the Mediterranean Knights to control the tempo of the game and sit back to protect their lead.

Nigeria’s goalkeeper, Stanley Nwabali, must be on high alert from the start, as Libya will waste no time in trying to break down the Super Eagles defense.

On the other hand, Nigeria must also aim for an early goal to take the sting out of Libya’s game plan. Without their talismanic striker, Victor Osimhen, who is recovering from injury, the attacking burden will fall on Victor Boniface and Taiwo Awoniyi. Both players will need to rise to the occasion and prove themselves at the international level.