World Bank projects Nigeria’s GDP growth at 4.4% in 2026–27

Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow by 4.4% in 2026 and maintain the same 4.4% growth in 2027, according to the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report released in January 2026.

The Bank’s 2027 projection stays unchanged at 4.4%, showing that it still believes Nigeria can sustain stronger growth in the medium term, even with structural issues that continue to weigh on the economy.

For 2026, the World Bank raised its estimate to 4.4%, up from the 3.7% forecast it had in its June 2025 version of the Global Economic Prospects report. In simple terms, the Bank is saying Nigeria’s economic conditions are improving enough to support a faster pace of expansion than previously expected.

What the World Bank thinks will drive the growth

The World Bank expects the 4.4% growth in 2026 and 2027 to come mainly from three areas.

First is services, which the Bank expects to keep expanding. Second is a rebound in agriculture, suggesting stronger production and better performance compared to prior periods. 

Third is a modest acceleration in non-oil industrial activity, pointing to gradual momentum outside crude oil.

In the Bank’s words, the 4.4% projection for both years would represent Nigeria’s fastest growth pace in over a decade.

Why the reforms matter in this forecast

A key part of the World Bank’s optimism is tied to policy direction. The Bank points to ongoing economic reforms, especially tax system reforms, alongside prudent monetary policy, as factors expected to support activity and strengthen stability.

The idea is straightforward: reforms and tighter policy discipline can help improve the economic environment, reduce uncertainty, and encourage more confidence in the system.

Inflation, investor confidence, and the oil angle

The Bank also suggests these policy measures should help in two practical ways: improving investor sentiment and reducing inflation further.

On the oil side, the World Bank expects higher oil output to help Nigeria manage the pressure of lower international oil prices. If output rises enough, it could help boost fiscal revenues and improve the external balance, easing some pressure on government finances and the broader economy.

Why this matters for Nigerians

The World Bank’s emphasis on services, agriculture, and non-oil industry reinforces a key point: Nigeria’s growth story is not being framed as “oil will save the day.” It is increasingly tied to non-oil drivers, which reflects the bigger goal of reducing dependence on crude exports.

If services keep growing and agriculture improves, the potential benefits are practical: more room for job creation, better odds of price stability, and a stronger base for government revenue over time.

For policymakers and investors, this forecast is also a signal that reforms may start producing clearer results though the Bank’s own framing shows it still sees structural challenges in the background.

What you should note

Beyond Nigeria, the World Bank expects Sub-Saharan Africa to grow by 4.3% in 2026, supported by reforms, steady domestic investment, and easing inflation.

Globally, it projects world growth to ease slightly to 2.6% in 2026 and rise to 2.7% in 2027, reflecting a more stable outlook driven by moderating inflation, stabilising financial conditions, and stronger performance in some emerging economies, even as major risks remain.