World Bank Ranking Retains Nigeria in Lower-Middle Income Class, Below Gabon, Libya

Nigeria is stuck in the Lower-Middle Income bracket, according to the latest World Bank ranking. At the same time, smaller countries, in terms of population, such as Libya, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Mauritius and South Africa are listed in the upper-middle-income bracket.

Nigeria was upgraded from a low-income economy, which it had been since the 80s, to a lower-middle-income economy in 2022. Despite its vast population, Nigeria has failed to jump to the World Bank’s upper-middle-income bracket.

In the Bank’s new income tables, the country’s gross national income (GNI) per person stands at approximately $2,180, which is well below the $4,516 threshold for the next tier. Even war-torn Iraq sits one rung above Nigeria on that scale.

The Bank also lists Nigeria among Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations (FCS), a list that includes Yemen, Sudan, Afghanistan and the Gaza Strip. The FCS tag signals that insecurity and weak institutions are now viewed as serious hindrances to growth.

To put it plainly, an average Nigerian now earns less than half the income of the average Libyan and one-third that of a Gabonese resident, despite Nigeria’s larger economy.

The cost of a fragile label

The FCS tag can unlock concessional loans and technical assistance, but it also warns investors that Nigeria carries higher political risk premiums. Multinationals may raise hurdle rates; sovereign-bond buyers may demand wider spreads; aid agencies may steer funds to humanitarian programmes rather than growth projects.

Can Nigeria move up?

To clear the $4,500 line by 2030, the Nigerian economy must grow at least 6% in real terms each year, while population growth slows. That requires:

• Security first – Without safer highways, farms and oil pipelines, output cannot accelerate.

• Reliable power – The current grid supply lags behind demand by roughly 15 GW. Cheap, steady electricity is the quickest route to factory jobs.

• Currency stability – Businesses need a predictable naira to plan imports, exports and payrolls.