Your Chances of Surviving when Nigeria Oil Dries Up as Freshly Predicted

By 2092, if Nigeria gets  there in one piece, some kind of end time awaits most of its youthful population that will be hanging around then. Especially kids born now whose life expectancy stands at about 62 years.

Just around their middle age, Nigeria’s oil reserves may dry up.

But, for now, good news: total crude oil and condensate reserves in Nigeria have bumped up to 37.5 billion barrels as of Jan 1.

And the refineries,including the five modular ones operating currently, will refine the last drops in 68 years’ time. A report the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) released at a briefing in Abuja April 16 made this clear.

Having plenty of resources and maxing them out are two different things anyway.

The latest US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) estimates of Nigeria’s energy consumption, production, and electricity generation stand at 52 percent, 67 percent, and zilch percent respectively. Those figures are for crude oil. Gas: 44 percent, 32 percent, and 23.2 percent in that same order.

In terms of revenues, crude remains the nation’s biggest source of earning dols. The figures whipsaw though, depending on the rate the Niger Deltan militants burst oil pipelines, or some other bad guys squirrel away the black gold.

But Nigeria generates between 90 percent and 95 percent of its forex from crude.

However, between now and 2092, amidst the plenty, a lot will be at stake.

The EIA said in its 2019 report oil production will dip in Nigeria by 2050, and renewable energy will give hydrocarbons a run for it.

That translates to low crude income for Nigeria–and higher poverty.

Nigeria, with its oil reserves, currently ranks high among the world’s poorest nations. Its poverty rate is estimated to have reached 38.9% in 2023. That makes it the world’s second largest poor population, with 87 million people waddling in poverty, a World Bank 2023 report stated.

Energy poverty is biting hard, too. The Bank put the figure at 85 million people lacking access to electricity. With the exploding population it currently experiences, Nigeria will boast of 377 million by 2050, and much higher later. Things may get tougher, many say,if nothing gives.

The NUPRC report could have sounded like some apocalypse; it doesn’t mean Nigeria will cease to exist then.

More veins of crude may surface in the meantime, and Nigeria will survive some more if it can’t live without oil.