Anti-Tinubu Coalition: Old Faces, New Agenda, and the Long Road to 2027

Nigeria’s opposition coalition is finally taking shape, as the anti-Tinubu force has officially adopted the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as its platform to wrestle power from the incumbent President Bola Tinubu in 2027.

Late Tuesday night in Abuja, a coalition fronted by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, disgruntled Nasir El-Rufai, NNPP figureheads, and several estranged APC heavyweights voted to abandon their stalled bid for a fresh party (ADA) registration and instead take over the ADC. 

Minutes later, former Senate President David Mark resigned from the Peoples Democratic Party and was announced as the ADC’s interim national chairman; ex-Osun governor Rauf Aregbesola accepted the role of interim national secretary, while former sports minister Bolaji Abdullahi became spokesman.

Why the ADC?

Coalition negotiators say months of back-and-forth with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) convinced them that registering a brand-new party before the 2027 timetable would be a bureaucratic gamble. 

By ‘hijacking’ the ADC’s dormant structure, they secure a nationwide licence overnight and sidestep signature drives in 774 LGAs. The deal, insiders claim, involved buying out the Jonathan Zwingina–led ADC faction and promising party loyalists prominent slots at a unity convention later this year. 

The Mark–Aregbesola ticket

Mark’s exit seals a months-long erosion of PDP veterans; only last week, Bukola Saraki warned more “high-profile defections” were coming as elite figures chase winnable platforms. In Aregbesola, once a protégé of Tinubu, the coalition gains an APC insider who broke with the ruling party after a bruising rift in Osun. He told reporters he joined “to build a policy-first alternative, not another election-season brand.”

“We must be the party that talks about public education and actually builds schools. That speaks of security and supports real policies to keep our communities safe,” Aregbesola said. “That believes in jobs and works to create them. That stands for Nigeria, not just during elections, but in everyday governance. This is not an easy task. It will take time. It will demand sacrifice. But it can be done.”

Fault-lines the coalition must bridge

• The bloc lumps together conservative northern governors, Labour’s social-welfare wing, and PDP old-guard centrists. Crafting a common economic message will test the new executive.
  
• Atiku, Labour’s Peter Obi and NNPP’s Rabiu Kwankwaso each believe they can headline the 2027 ticket. A primary that alienates any one of them could fracture the alliance before it leaves the dock.
  
• Only two governors, Bauchi’s Bala Mohammed and Oyo’s Seyi Makinde, are openly sympathetic. Without governors, the ADC must rely on federal-level heavyweights for funding and mobilisation.
  
• The ruling party is already framing the move as “dead on arrival,” arguing that defections prove its openness while painting the coalition as an elite recycling project.
  

Has PDP’s bleeding stopped?

It is doubtful if Mark’s departure from PDP carries much weight, given the party’s recent NEC meeting, where it temporarily resolved its National Secretary crisis occasioned by rival camps loyal to Nyesom Wike and Makinde, and seemingly reached a consensus to rebuild. However, if more prominent figures in the PDP defect to ADC, ward-level financiers may follow, thereby starving the PDP of both cash and ground troops.

What to watch next

1. The coalition must file a new ADC constitution and executive list within 30 days. Any challenge from the ADC’s displaced faction could bog the plan down in court.
   
2. A promised policy blueprint on fuel pricing, foreign exchange, and security is due before the end of the year; its coherence will signal whether disparate camps can govern together.
   
3. If even one sitting governor crosses to the ADC, the party gains automatic ballot access and state machinery, transforming a paper coalition into a real threat.
   

For now, the ADC makeover gives the opposition something it lacked: a single ballot line. Whether that line unites or unravels Nigeria’s disparate anti-APC forces will shape the run-up to the 2027 elections.