Can Tinubu Turn APC’s 10.99m Primary Votes Into 2027 Victory?

President Bola Tinubu has secured the presidential ticket of the All Progressives Congress, APC, ahead of the 2027 election. But his huge primary victory has opened a bigger political question: can he turn 10.99 million party votes into another national election win?

Tinubu defeated his only challenger, Stanley Osifo, in the APC presidential primary. The APC Presidential Primaries Election Committee said Tinubu polled 10,999,162 votes, while Osifo received 16,503 votes. Reuters also reported that Tinubu will seek a second and final four-year term after winning the party’s primary by a wide margin. 

APC can argue that the president still controls the party structure and enjoys wide internal support. But Nigerian elections are not won on party membership figures alone. They are won through voter turnout, public mood, regional alliances, campaign organisation and trust in the candidate.

That is where the 2027 question begins.

Why 10.99 Million Primary Votes Matter

The APC says it has 12,643,316 registered members. If Tinubu received nearly 11 million votes in a direct primary, his supporters can present that as proof that the party remains mobilised ahead of the January 16, 2027 presidential election.

APC National Chairman, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda, described the primary as a “dress rehearsal” for the general election. He said the turnout showed the party’s strength and argued that no rival party could match APC’s structure nationwide.

That argument is politically useful. A ruling party that can mobilise millions of members before the general election sends a signal to opponents, donors, governors, lawmakers and undecided politicians.

But a party primary is not the same thing as a national election.

Why Primary Votes Do Not Always Become Election Votes

Tinubu won the 2023 presidential election with 8,794,726 votes. At the time, the APC had claimed tens of millions of registered members. Yet the final election figure was far lower than the party’s membership claim.

That gap shows why party membership numbers can be misleading. Some registered members may not vote. Some may be inactive. Some may support the party locally but not the presidential candidate. Others may be registered in party records but absent on election day.

This is why Tinubu’s 10.99 million APC primary votes cannot automatically be treated as guaranteed 2027 votes. The number is politically important, but the real test will come when the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, conducts the general election.

The South-East and South-South Numbers Stand Out

One of the most interesting parts of the APC primary result is the regional pattern.

In 2023, Tinubu performed poorly in the South-East, where he secured 127,605 votes across the five states. But in the APC primary, his tally from the region reportedly rose to 1,377,960, with Imo State producing more than 582,000 votes.

The South-South also showed a major difference. Tinubu scored 799,957 votes in the region during the 2023 presidential election, but his APC primary figure was put at 1,539,126.

If APC can convert those internal party numbers into real voter support in 2027, Tinubu could improve his national spread. But that remains a major “if”. The South-East and South-South have strong opposition traditions, and internal party turnout does not always reflect wider public sentiment.

The South-West Dip Is Also Important

Tinubu’s South-West numbers also deserve attention.

The South-West is his political base, and it played a major role in his 2023 victory. But according to the figures cited from the APC primary, his support in the region appeared lower than his 2023 general election tally.

He reportedly got 1,648,451 votes in the APC primary from the South-West, compared with 2,279,407 votes in the 2023 presidential election.

This does not mean Tinubu has lost the region. A primary and a general election measure different things. But it does suggest that APC cannot take the South-West for granted. The party will still need strong mobilisation in Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo and Ekiti.

APC’s Membership Figures Raise Questions

Another issue is the party’s membership record.

In 2023, APC claimed it had more than 41 million members. Now, the party’s registered membership figure is said to be 12.6 million. That is a major difference, especially after several defections into the ruling party.

Yilwatda has blamed earlier online registration problems and said the matter has been addressed. But politically, the gap raises questions about the reliability of party membership figures in Nigeria.

For voters, the number that matters most is not how many people belong to APC on paper. It is how many people will vote for Tinubu in 2027.

Tinubu’s Main Challenge Before 2027

Tinubu’s biggest challenge is not winning the APC ticket. That part is done.

His bigger challenge is convincing voters that his first-term policies deserve another four years. His government has defended its economic reforms, including subsidy removal and exchange rate changes, but critics argue that these policies have worsened the cost-of-living crisis.

Reuters reported in 2025 that Tinubu’s reforms had drawn praise from investors and institutions, while critics blamed them for severe hardship.

That means the 2027 election may not be decided by APC structures alone. It may also be shaped by food prices, fuel costs, insecurity, jobs, wages, opposition unity and voter turnout.

Can Tinubu Repeat or Beat 10.99 Million Votes?

Tinubu can repeat or beat 10.99 million votes in 2027, but it is not guaranteed.

The APC primary result shows that he still controls the ruling party. It gives his campaign a strong organisational base. It also allows APC to project confidence before the general election.

But national elections are different. Opposition voters, undecided voters, regional blocs, turnout levels and public anger over the economy will all matter.

For Tinubu, the primary was a show of party strength. The 2027 election will be a test of national approval.

FAQs

How many votes did Tinubu get in the APC presidential primary?

Tinubu received 10,999,162 votes in the APC presidential primary, while Stanley Osifo got 16,503 votes.

Does Tinubu’s primary win mean he will win in 2027?

No. The primary win shows APC support, but the general election will depend on voter turnout, public mood, regional support and opposition strength.

How many votes did Tinubu get in the 2023 presidential election?

Tinubu won the 2023 presidential election with about 8.79 million votes.

What is Tinubu’s biggest challenge before 2027?

His biggest challenge is converting APC’s party strength into real voter support, especially amid concerns over inflation, cost of living and insecurity.