Nigerians waiting for a drop in petrol prices may have to wait longer, as the struggle between Dangote Refinery and fuel importers continues to keep pump prices above ₦1,000 per litre.
The issue has become one of the biggest questions in Nigeria’s downstream oil market: if global crude prices are easing, why are petrol prices still high at home?
According to reports, petrol prices may not fall below ₦1,000 per litre soon unless importers decide to trigger a price war against the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
The refinery has become Nigeria’s main price-setter in the petrol, diesel and aviation fuel market since the fourth quarter of 2024, replacing the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited’s former dominant position in petrol imports.
Crude Prices Fall, But Petrol Remains High
Many Nigerians expected pump prices to fall after crude prices dropped to about $70 per barrel. Lower crude prices usually reduce the cost of refined petroleum products. But the local market has not responded as quickly as many consumers expected.
Dangote Refinery has made only marginal price adjustments, while importers have also failed to push prices down in a major way. Data from the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria showed that the landed cost of imported petrol stood at ₦1,023 per litre, while Dangote’s gantry price stood at ₦1,075 per litre.
Dangote Points to Importers
A senior Dangote Group official reportedly argued that the Federal Government should ask licensed importers to reduce their prices. The official said importers have brought in cheaper products but have not passed the savings to consumers.
The official also said the refinery still holds crude bought at higher prices. That means Dangote may not cut prices deeply until it exhausts older stock and resolves crude supply issues. The company also claimed that limited local crude supply has forced it to import crude while exporting some refined products.
This exposes a major weakness in Nigeria’s new fuel market. Deregulation has removed direct government price control, but competition has not yet delivered the lower prices many Nigerians expected.
Importers Wait, Marketers Watch
Importers appear cautious. They do not want to import aggressively and then lose money if Dangote suddenly cuts prices. Marketers also fear another price war like the one seen in 2025, when quick price changes created losses across the supply chain.
This hesitation has created a slow-moving market. Depots have made minor reductions, but those cuts have not given consumers serious relief. In Lagos, some depots reduced petrol prices by only ₦3 to ₦4 per litre before Dangote later announced a ₦50 cut in its gantry price.
Why Nigerians Should Care
For households, high petrol prices mean higher transport fares, food prices and logistics costs. For small businesses, fuel remains one of the biggest operating expenses. For the government, the situation tests the promise of deregulation.
Deregulation works best when competition protects consumers. But if one dominant refiner sets the pace while importers wait for signals, the market may remain open without becoming truly competitive.
The Federal Government now faces a difficult balance. It cannot return fully to price control without weakening deregulation. But it also cannot ignore consumer frustration if prices stay high while global crude prices fall.
