How Iran war could push 30 million people into poverty – UN

The ongoing US-Israeli military conflict with Iran is threatening to reverse decades of development progress across the world’s most vulnerable nations, according to a stark warning issued Wednesday by the United Nations Development Programme. The UNDP estimates that even a short continuation of the conflict could push more than 32 million people into poverty across 160 countries a crisis driven largely by surging energy prices, collapsing fertiliser supply chains, and the closure of one of the world’s most critical waterways.

What the UNDP Said About the Scale of the Crisis

Speaking on the sidelines of a G7 development meeting in Paris, UNDP Administrator Alexander De Croo told AFP that the economic damage being caused by the war is both swift and sweeping. “It’s development in reverse,” he said. “It took decades to build stable societies, to develop local economies, and it took only several weeks of war to destroy that.”

De Croo, a former Prime Minister of Belgium, said the agency had conducted a study after six weeks of conflict and found that 32 million people stood to be pushed into precarity across 160 countries – even if hostilities had ended at that point. The actual figures, given the war’s continuation, are expected to be significantly higher.

How the Strait of Hormuz Closure Is Reshaping Global Energy

At the centre of the economic disruption is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which approximately one fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows during peacetime. With that corridor now effectively blocked, global energy markets have been thrown into sharp imbalance.

Gulf nations are also critical suppliers of the feedstocks and oil products used to manufacture fertiliser. The simultaneous squeeze on both energy and agricultural inputs has created a compounding crisis that is particularly devastating for countries with limited fiscal buffers.

In response, governments across Africa and Asia have introduced emergency measures including fuel rationing, shortened working weeks to reduce consumption, and cuts to fuel taxes intended to soften the blow for ordinary consumers. These are not marginal adjustments, They signal how severely supply disruptions are reshaping daily economic life in affected countries.

Which Regions Are Most Exposed to the Fallout

The UNDP has identified Sub-Saharan Africa as one of the most acutely exposed regions. Countries like Bangladesh and Cambodia in Asia are also facing serious pressure, as both depend heavily on affordable energy imports and agricultural inputs whose prices have been upended by the conflict.

Small island developing states face particular vulnerabilities due to their structural dependence on imported fuel and their limited ability to absorb price shocks through domestic production or fiscal policy.

De Croo pointed to the cascading nature of the damage: beyond direct energy and food costs, the war is generating political instability and a sharp drop in remittances. Millions of workers employed in Gulf countries send income back to families in South Asia and East Africa, and with economic life across the Gulf disrupted, those flows of money are drying up at precisely the moment families need them most.

The $6 Billion Question: How Much Would It Cost to Prevent Mass Poverty

The UNDP has put a concrete number on what it would take to shield the most vulnerable populations from the worst effects. De Croo said approximately $6 billion in subsidies would be needed to support those most exposed to rising food and energy prices, A figure that may sound large in isolation, but is modest against the costs of the war itself.

“You can say that six billion dollars is a lot, The war cost nine billion dollars per week,” he said, underlining the stark disparity between the humanitarian investment required and the military expenditure being sustained.

Discussions on mobilising this funding are reportedly already underway within the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, though no formal commitment has been announced.

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Frequently Asked Questions

How many people could be pushed into poverty by the Iran war? The UN Development Programme estimates that at least 32 million people across 160 countries could be pushed into poverty as a direct consequence of the US-Israeli war on Iran, based on a study conducted after six weeks of conflict. The figure assumes the war had ended at that point; ongoing hostilities are expected to raise the number further.

Why is the Iran war causing a global food and energy crisis? The war has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20 percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas supply passes in peacetime. Gulf nations are also key suppliers of fertiliser feedstocks. Together, these disruptions have driven up the cost of both energy and food production worldwide, disproportionately affecting lower-income countries with limited capacity to absorb price shocks.

Which countries are most affected by the Iran war’s economic impact? According to the UNDP, Sub-Saharan African nations, Bangladesh, Cambodia, and small island developing states are among the most vulnerable. These countries depend heavily on affordable energy imports and remittances from workers in Gulf states, both of which have been severely disrupted.

How much money does the UN say is needed to prevent a poverty crisis? The UNDP estimates that roughly $6 billion in subsidies is needed to protect the most vulnerable populations from spiralling food and energy costs. Talks on securing this funding are said to be underway at the IMF and World Bank.

What measures are governments taking to cope with rising energy costs? Several countries in Africa and Asia have introduced fuel rationing, shortened working weeks to limit energy consumption, and reduced fuel taxes to ease pressure on consumers. These measures reflect the severity of supply shortages triggered by the war.