How Tinubu’s 2026 Budget Could Affect Nigerian Families and Small Businesses

President Bola Tinubu has presented a ₦58.18 trillion budget for 2026, one of the biggest in Nigeria’s history. Many Nigerians are hoping this spending plan will reduce hardship, support small businesses and improve basic services like roads, schools and hospitals.

The budget shows that the Federal Government still wants to play a strong role in driving economic growth, even though money is tight and debts are high.

Where the Money Is Going

In the 2026 budget, security and defence get ₦5.41 trillion, up from ₦4.91 trillion in 2025. This increase shows that the government still sees insecurity as a major threat to the country.

Education gets ₦3.52 trillion and health gets ₦2.48 trillion – the same amounts as in the 2025 budget. Spending on infrastructure such as roads, power and ports is reduced from ₦4.06 trillion in 2025 to ₦3.56 trillion in 2026, but it is still a major part of the plan.

Experts say these choices will shape how people live, work and do business in 2026.

Economists note that the real impact of the budget will be felt in homes and communities, not just in Abuja. With more money going to security, the government is hoping to make travel safer, reduce attacks on farmers and traders and create a more stable environment for work and business, especially in troubled areas.

For families, better security can mean fewer roadblocks, less fear of kidnapping, and more steady income from farming and trading.

Why Security, Education and Health Matter

Dr Muda Yusuf, Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, says it is a good sign that security, education, health and infrastructure are all listed as priorities. He explains that without safety, it is difficult for businesses to grow or for people to go about their daily lives.

He also says that investment in schools, hospitals and roads is important for building skilled people, improving productivity and reducing poverty. But he stresses that this will only help if the money is truly released and used correctly.

The Big Question: Will the Budget Be Properly Implemented?

Yusuf and other experts warn that the main problem is not what is written in the budget but how much of it will be carried out. In past years, many projects were approved on paper but were never completed or even started.

The President has promised to finish key parts of the 2024 and 2025 budgets early next year and to speed up work on the 2026 budget. Economists say Nigerians will judge this government by how many real roads, schools, clinics and power projects they see, not just by big figures announced in Abuja.

Infrastructure and Daily Life

Even though the amount for infrastructure has been reduced, it still plays a central role in the 2026 plan. Good roads and railways can cut transport costs and reduce travel time. More reliable power can lower generator costs for homes and businesses. Better ports and logistics can make it easier to move goods across the country.

Development economist Dr Justin Amase says this is where ordinary Nigerians will really feel the budget. When road, housing, power and agriculture projects start, artisans, small contractors, farmers and suppliers usually feel the benefits first through jobs and supply contracts.

For rural communities, new or better roads can connect farmers to markets, help children reach schools more easily and improve access to health centres.

Small Businesses: Relief or More Pressure?

Small businesses (SMEs) are at the centre of the debate around this budget. If infrastructure projects go ahead as planned, transport and energy costs could fall over time, making it easier for small traders, manufacturers and service providers to survive and grow.

But if projects are delayed or poorly executed, SMEs may still face high costs, bad roads, unreliable power and slow payments from government contracts. In that case, the big budget figures will not translate into real relief on the ground.

How Will the Budget Be Funded?

Professor Hassan Oaikhenan from the University of Benin warns that Nigerians should not only look at the size of the budget, but also at how it will be funded. Government revenue has been weak in recent years.

He notes that if revenue targets are not met, the government may push harder on tax collection and enforcement. Even if tax rates do not officially increase, many small businesses, traders and professionals could face more levies, tighter enforcement and new compliance demands. These costs usually end up in the prices that consumers pay.

Revenue Problems and Debt Worries

Data from the 2025 budget show serious challenges. Between January and July, total revenue fell about 40 per cent below target, while oil revenue missed its target by more than 60 per cent. Capital projects received less than half of what was planned, while debt servicing cost more than expected.

Analysts say not much has changed structurally, so there is a risk that the same problems will continue in 2026. If revenue again falls short, government may borrow more, delay payments or cut back on capital projects, all of which can hurt growth and confidence.

Inflation, Prices and Cost of Living

Many Nigerians are hoping the 2026 budget will make food and transport cheaper. However, some economists warn that large budget deficits, election-related spending and how oil revenue is used could push inflation back up.

Professor Oaikhenan says that without real increases in productivity – such as more food being grown, more power being generated and more goods being produced – Nigerians may not feel much relief in the short term. For many, 2026 may still be a year of sacrifice and adjustment.

Public Services and Vulnerable Groups

Public finance expert Prof. Aminu Danjuma says the impact of the budget will also be judged by what happens to public services and vulnerable people. If money for salaries, pensions and social intervention programmes is paid regularly and on time, civil servants, teachers, health workers and retirees will have more stable income. This stability then supports local markets and small businesses.

But he also warns that the benefits may not reach everyone equally. Cities may see quicker gains because projects often start there first. Rural communities will only benefit if agricultural funds are used properly to support farmers with inputs, extension services and rural roads.

Trust, Transparency and Investor Confidence

Dr Amase believes that trust in government budgeting is still weak because past budgets have not been fully explained with clear performance reports. He says the 2026 budget is, for now, more of a statement of hope than a guarantee. If revenue continues to fall short and debt keeps rising, payments to contractors may be delayed and private investors may become more cautious.

Better transparency and regular updates on how money is spent would help rebuild confidence among both citizens and investors.

Oil, Energy and Revenue Prospects

Energy sector players have reacted positively to the assumptions behind the 2026 budget. The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) says the budget is based on realistic numbers: crude oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day and an oil price of about 64 to 65 dollars per barrel.

PETROAN president, Dr Billy Gillis-Harry, called the budget “strategic and forward-looking”. He believes that targeted spending on upstream oil and gas – such as reviving old fields, supporting marginal fields and investing in offshore projects – can raise production, improve efficiency and boost government revenue.

However, PETROAN also notes that this will only work if security improves around oil installations and if host communities are truly involved and benefit as promised in the Petroleum Industry Act.