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Nigeria’s Debt Record 1999 to 2025: Who Really Borrowed the Most?

There’s a common claim in Nigeria that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has borrowed more than all previous civilian administrations combined since 1999. This idea is repeated so often that many people now accept it as fact.

But a recent data-led brief by ThinkBusiness Africa Ltd, authored by economist Ogho Okiti and published through Proshare, tests that claim against actual debt figures from Nigeria’s Debt Management Office. The findings complicate the popular narrative in important ways and point to a much bigger issue that gets lost whenever the conversation turns to which president “borrowed the most.”

Why the question of who borrowed most keeps dividing Nigeria’s economic debate

Nigeria’s debt stock, measured in naira, has grown dramatically since 2023. For anyone simply comparing headline naira figures before and after that year, it looks like borrowing exploded almost overnight. That visual jump is what fuels the claim that the current administration is Nigeria’s biggest borrower by far.

The problem is that naira figures alone do not tell the full story. A large share of Nigeria’s debt is denominated in foreign currency, mainly US dollars, and is contracted and repaid in that currency. When the naira loses value against the dollar, the naira value of that existing foreign debt rises automatically, even if not one additional dollar has been borrowed. This is an accounting effect tied to exchange rate revaluation, not necessarily new borrowing, and it is a key distinction that affects how debt comparisons are interpreted.

What the dollar-denominated data shows about external debt growth since 2015

To compare administrations on a fair basis, the brief uses Nigeria’s external debt stock measured in US dollars, since that strips out the effect of exchange rate movements and shows what was actually borrowed from international lenders and bondholders.

On this measure, Nigeria’s external debt rose from about 10.3 billion dollars in 2015 to about 42.9 billion dollars by 2023, a net increase of roughly 32.6 billion dollars during the Buhari administration. By comparison, external debt rose from about 42.5 billion dollars in May 2023, when President Tinubu took office, to about 51.9 billion dollars by December 2025, a net increase of roughly 9.4 billion dollars.

The table below summarises these figures.

2015 to 2023 (Buhari)	10.3 billion	42.9 billion	plus 32.6 billion
May 2023 to December 2025 (Tinubu)	42.5 billion	51.9 billion	plus 9.4 billion

On these numbers, the single largest increase in Nigeria’s external debt stock during the democratic era took place between 2015 and 2023, not under the current administration. That challenges the idea that President Tinubu is Nigeria’s biggest borrower in dollar terms, when borrowing is measured strictly by net external debt accumulation.

How the 2023 exchange rate reform inflated naira debt figures without new borrowing

If the dollar figures tell this story, why does the naira figure look so dramatically different? The answer lies in what happened in June 2023, when Nigeria unified its exchange rate and allowed the naira to trade closer to its market value.

Before that reform, the roughly 42.5 billion dollars in external debt inherited by the new administration was carried on the books at about 19.6 trillion naira, based on the old, managed exchange rate. Once the naira was allowed to float and depreciated sharply against the dollar, that same 42.5 billion dollar stock translated into a much larger naira figure, simply because each dollar of existing debt now required more naira to express.

Comparing a pre-2023 naira debt figure with a post-2023 naira debt figure, without adjusting for this currency translation effect, will always make it look like borrowing exploded, even where the underlying dollar exposure has changed only modestly. A significant share of the increase in Nigeria’s naira-denominated debt since 2023 reflects revaluation of inherited obligations rather than equivalent fresh borrowing.

Why domestic debt tells a different story than the naira headlines suggest

The external debt picture is only half the story. Nigeria’s domestic debt, when assessed in dollar terms, shows a more nuanced movement rather than a simple directional increase.

According to the brief, domestic debt in dollar terms moved from about 65.6 billion dollars in the first quarter of 2023 to about 59.1 billion dollars by the end of 2025, a decline of roughly 6.5 billion dollars. That compares with an increase of about 11.6 billion dollars in domestic debt during the Buhari years.

Taken together, total public debt in dollar terms rose modestly between 2023 and 2025, even though the naira value of total debt climbed significantly over the same period. Both figures can be correct depending on the unit of measurement, but only the dollar-based view reflects net borrowing exposure after stripping out exchange rate distortions.

Part of the naira increase in domestic debt also came from a one-off accounting change rather than new spending. The brief points to the securitisation of about 23.9 trillion naira in Ways and Means advances, which were Central Bank overdrafts accumulated under the previous administration. Converting these into government securities moved them onto the formal domestic debt ledger, increasing recorded debt without representing new fiscal borrowing in 2023.

Why debt service has become Nigeria’s real fiscal constraint

None of this means Nigeria’s debt situation is comfortable. The brief is careful to make this point. The more pressing issue is not just the size of the debt stock, but the cost of servicing it.

A growing share of federal government revenue now goes toward debt service, covering Eurobond repayments, bilateral and multilateral obligations, domestic bond interest, and the rising naira cost of servicing foreign currency debt after the exchange rate reform. As this share rises, less revenue remains for infrastructure, healthcare, education and security.

This is why debt sustainability is increasingly framed as a revenue and repayment capacity issue rather than a pure borrowing issue. A country can carry a large debt stock if its revenue base is strong enough to service it without crowding out investment. Nigeria’s challenge remains the gap between revenue growth and debt obligations across multiple administrations.

What this debate means for banks, the capital market and investors

The way Nigeria’s debt story is interpreted matters beyond political commentary. Government securities sit heavily on the balance sheets of Nigerian banks, meaning sovereign risk directly influences credit pricing and financial stability.

The brief notes that this conversation is unfolding at a sensitive moment for the financial sector. Nigerian banks are completing a recapitalisation cycle, and several have received ratings upgrades following improvements in Nigeria’s sovereign outlook. At the same time, FTSE Russell has moved to restore Nigeria to Frontier Market status from September 2026, while capital inflows into the banking sector strengthened in early 2026.

For investors, sovereign debt interpretation directly affects risk pricing across bonds, equities and bank funding structures. Misreading currency revaluation as new borrowing can distort perceived fiscal risk.

Why this matters for everyday Nigerians and businesses

For business owners, the key implication is how debt service pressures influence government spending priorities, borrowing costs and macroeconomic stability. High debt service obligations reduce fiscal space for infrastructure investment and can indirectly influence interest rates and liquidity conditions.

Nigeria’s debt debate remains politically sensitive, and interpretations will continue to differ. However, what this analysis reinforces is the importance of separating new borrowing, currency revaluation, and accounting reclassification when evaluating debt trends over time.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did President Tinubu borrow more than every previous Nigerian administration combined since 1999?

According to dollar-denominated Debt Management Office data, this claim is not supported. The largest external debt increase occurred between 2015 and 2023.

Why does Nigeria’s naira debt figure look so much higher since 2023?

Because exchange rate unification revalued existing foreign currency debt at a weaker naira rate, inflating nominal figures without equivalent new borrowing.

How much did Nigeria’s external debt grow under President Buhari?

External debt rose from about 10.3 billion dollars in 2015 to about 42.9 billion dollars in 2023.

How much did Nigeria’s external debt grow under President Tinubu as of late 2025?

External debt rose from about 42.5 billion dollars in 2023 to about 51.9 billion dollars in 2025.

What happened to Nigeria’s domestic debt in dollar terms since 2023?

It declined modestly when converted to dollar terms, though naira figures rose due to valuation and restructuring effects.

What is Ways and Means and why does it matter?

It refers to Central Bank overdrafts to the federal government. Their securitisation increased recorded domestic debt but did not represent new borrowing.