Nigeria Loses $6.8 Billion to Oil Production Shortfalls in 8 Months

Nigeria lost an estimated $6.848 billion in the first eight months of 2025 due to lower-than-planned crude and condensate output, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). 

From January to August, production totalled about 406.84 million barrels, roughly 93.74 million barrels below the budget target of 500.58 million. That implies an 18.3% output gap and a major hit to public revenue.

The loss estimate uses an average oil price near $73 per barrel. On the government’s $75 benchmark, the implied hole would top $7 billion.

The 2025 budget assumed average daily production of 2.06 million barrels per day (bpd), but actual output averaged around 1.67 million bpd,about 390,000 bpd under plan.

What’s Driving the Gap

Persistent crude theft and pipeline vandalism in the Niger Delta, downtime on key evacuation routes, and delayed investment in maintaining mature fields all dragged output lower. Operational disruptions and lapses in security further limited producers’ ability to keep facilities running consistently.

Oil remains central to government finance and foreign-exchange supply. Weaker receipts threaten monthly allocations to the Federation Account, tighten cash flow, and may force extra borrowing or mid-year budget revisions. 

For the broader economy, reduced inflows can pressure the naira, lift financing costs, and shrink fiscal space for infrastructure and social programmes.

Stabilising production will require securing critical pipelines, accelerating approvals for infill drilling and brownfield workovers, unclogging export terminal bottlenecks, and attracting new upstream capital. 

Without visible improvement, the output gap will continue to weigh on Nigeria’s fiscal stability and growth outlook.