Nigeria’s Petrol Imports Surge 59.5% in May Despite Strong Domestic Refining

Nigeria’s petrol import volumes rose sharply in May 2026, increasing by 59.5 percent compared to April. This happened even though domestic refineries recorded one of their strongest performances in recent months.

Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority shows a clear contradiction. Domestic production is rising, yet imports are also returning. This points to a deeper structural issue in the fuel supply system.

The key challenge is not refinery capacity. It is crude supply stability and distribution efficiency.

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Headline Numbers for May 2026

In May, petrol imports averaged 5.9 million litres per day. This is an increase from 3.7 million litres per day in April.

At the same time, total petrol supply rose to 47.4 million litres per day. This is up from 44.4 million litres per day in the previous month.

Domestic refineries contributed 41.5 million litres per day. Imports made up the remaining 5.9 million litres per day.

This means local production accounted for about 88 percent of total supply. Imports still accounted for about 12 percent.

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Why Imports Increased Despite Higher Output

The rise in imports does not necessarily mean local production failed. Instead, it reflects how Nigeria manages fuel distribution and storage.

Oil marketers often import petrol to maintain stable depot stocks. This helps prevent shortages when domestic supply fluctuates.

Even with strong refinery output, the system still relies on imports as a backup mechanism.

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Dangote Refinery Performance

The Dangote Refinery remains the dominant source of domestic petrol supply.

In May 2026, it produced about 41.5 million litres per day. This represents more than 80 percent of total national supply.

The refinery also operated above its official capacity level. It recorded about 101 percent utilisation during the month.

This shows strong technical performance. However, output still depends heavily on consistent crude oil supply.

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The Crude Supply Challenge

One of the main constraints is crude oil availability.

Domestic refineries require steady crude deliveries to operate at full capacity. However, supply from NNPC and other sources has not always matched demand.

In May, crude deliveries fell compared to April. This created pressure on refinery operations.

When crude supply drops, refiners often rely on imported crude. This increases production costs and affects pricing stability.

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State Refineries Still Idle

Nigeria’s state owned refineries in Warri and Kaduna did not produce fuel in May 2026.

Despite ongoing rehabilitation spending, they remain non operational.

This means the burden of domestic refining is almost entirely carried by private facilities, especially the Dangote Refinery.

Other smaller private refineries contribute, but their output is limited compared to Dangote.

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Legal and Market Tensions

There is also an ongoing dispute in the downstream sector.

Dangote Refinery has challenged the issuance of import licences to fuel marketers. It argues that imports undermine local refining investment.

NNPC and marketers disagree. They say imports are necessary to ensure supply stability and protect consumers from price spikes.

This legal tension adds uncertainty to the future balance between imports and domestic production.

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Crude Production Trends in Nigeria

Nigeria’s crude oil production improved slightly in May 2026.

Output rose to about 1.53 million barrels per day, up from 1.49 million barrels per day in April.

While this is a positive trend, it has not fully solved domestic refinery supply needs.

A large portion of crude is still tied to export commitments and financing arrangements. This reduces what is available for local refining.

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What the Data Really Shows

The May figures show three key realities:

First, Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity has improved significantly.

Second, imports have not disappeared because the supply system is still adjusting.

Third, crude allocation and distribution remain the biggest bottlenecks.

The system is improving, but it is not yet stable enough to eliminate imports completely.