Nigeria’s Pay-TV vs. Streaming in 2030-Will Satellite Still Matter?

As internet access and on-demand platforms gain ground, Nigeria’s traditional satellite TV sector faces mounting pressure.

A closer look at today’s subscriber trends and future projections offers insight into where pay-TV stands and how streaming services are poised to dominate by 2030.

Pay-TV’s Slow Decline

Between April and September 2024, MultiChoice Nigeria, the operator behind DStv and GOtv, saw its Nigerian subscriber base fall from 9.3 million to 8.1 million, a loss of 1.2 million customers across its platforms when combined with broader Rest-of-Africa declines. 

Overall, the company ended its 2025 fiscal year with 14.5 million subscribers across all markets, underscoring how pivotal the Nigerian market remains even as it contracts.

Streaming’s Rapid Growth

By contrast, subscription video-on-demand (SVoD) in Nigeria has been on a steep upward trajectory. In 2023, SVoD platforms served 2.61 million subscribers; that figure is forecast to climb to 9.4 million by 2028, driven by greater internet penetration and a surge in local and international content. 

The country’s video-streaming revenue of $577.4 million in 2023 is projected to hit $905.7 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of nearly 12 percent. With 159.5 million active internet subscriptions by mid-2023 and internet spending up 34.3 percent in 2024, the foundations are solidly in place for on-demand services to flourish.

Subscriber Projections for 2030

Extending current trends suggests that if MultiChoice’s Nigerian base continues to decline at roughly 5 percent per year from its approximately 7.5 million subscribers in early 2025, it could shrink to around 5.8 million by 2030. 

Meanwhile, applying the 2023–2028 growth rate for SVoD indicates streaming viewers could leap from 9.4 million in 2028 to about 15.7 million by 2030.

In other words, on-demand services may boast nearly three times as many Nigerian subscribers as satellite pay-TV households by the decade’s end.

Why Satellite Will Still Matter

Despite this shift, satellite television will retain strategic importance, particularly in areas where broadband remains unreliable or prohibitively expensive. Rural and underserved regions often rely on satellite as their sole consistent video delivery method. 

Moreover, MultiChoice is already experimenting with hybrid models that combine linear channels and on-demand libraries through internet-enabled decoders, while its exclusive rights to live sports and high-profile Nollywood premieres continue to draw dedicated audiences. 

These factors ensure that, although smaller in scale, satellite pay-TV will remain a significant component of Nigeria’s viewing ecosystem.

By 2030, streaming is set to eclipse satellite TV in subscriber numbers, driven by robust internet growth and compelling content offerings. 

However, satellite services will persist in reaching audiences beyond fibre and 4G coverage, offering bundled innovations and exclusive live programming. 

Media companies and content creators will need to blend satellite’s broad reach with streaming’s flexibility; the adoption of hybrid strategies will be key to capturing a digitally diverse Nigerian audience.