Nigeria’s Trade Value Rises to ₦7.55 Trillion in Q1 2026 -NBS

Nigeria’s external trade performance in the first quarter of 2026 recorded a remarkable rebound, as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported a merchandise trade surplus of ₦7.55 trillion. 

This represents a 341% increase compared to the preceding quarter, signalling renewed strength in the country’s export-driven sectors. 

Analysts view this as a critical marker of resilience in the Nigerian economy, with implications for foreign exchange stability, corporate earnings, and investment planning.

Exports Drive the Surplus

Total exports in Q1 2026 reached ₦21.17 trillion, underpinned by crude oil, refined petroleum products, and a growing contribution from non-oil commodities. While oil exports remained the cornerstone, agricultural and manufactured products showed an upward trend, reflecting diversification efforts. 

In contrast, imports declined to ₦13.62 trillion, reducing the overall trade deficit and amplifying the surplus.

The NBS highlighted that oil and gas products accounted for approximately 60% of total exports, while non-oil exports, such as cocoa, sesame seeds, and processed food products, accounted for the remainder. The combined effect of higher exports and controlled imports directly contributed to the 341% quarterly growth.

Macroeconomic Implications

A widening trade surplus strengthens Nigeria’s external position by boosting foreign reserves and stabilising the naira against volatile global currencies. Economists argue that such a trend enhances investor confidence, supporting stock market gains and private sector growth.

For businesses, the improved trade balance provides more opportunities for export-oriented industries. Firms in manufacturing, agribusiness, and logistics can leverage this momentum to expand operations and enhance competitiveness in African and global markets.

Regional and Global Context

Nigeria’s trade performance comes amid a broader African trade revival linked to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Improved regional trade agreements and favourable global commodity prices have helped Nigerian exporters tap into new markets. Major buyers, including India, France, the Netherlands, Spain, and the United States, contributed to this export surge.

Corporate and Sectoral Effects

Several sectors benefit directly from the trade surplus.

1. Manufacturing and Agro-Processing: Increased foreign demand encourages higher production volumes, investment in technology, and job creation.
2. Logistics and Transportation: Firms experience higher demand for freight services, warehouse management, and shipping infrastructure.
3. Financial Institutions: Banks and forex brokers gain from higher international transactions and improved liquidity.

Challenges and Considerations

Despite the strong surplus, challenges remain. Currency volatility, infrastructural bottlenecks, and dependence on oil revenue can limit sustainable growth. 

Experts recommend that government and private stakeholders focus on diversifying exports, strengthening supply chains, and maintaining a stable policy environment to preserve gains.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Q: What caused Nigeria’s trade surplus to jump 341%?
A: A combination of higher exports, especially crude oil and refined products, along with a decline in imports, drove the surplus.

Q: How does this trade surplus affect the Nigerian economy?
A: It improves foreign exchange reserves, strengthens the naira, boosts investor confidence, and creates opportunities for export-oriented sectors.

Q: Which sectors benefit most from this surplus?
A: Manufacturing, agro-processing, logistics, and financial services are the primary beneficiaries.

Q: Can this trend continue in the upcoming quarters?
A: Sustained growth depends on export diversification, stable policy frameworks, and improvements in infrastructure to facilitate trade.