Brent crude has climbed above $91 a barrel as hopes of a US-Iran peace deal fade. Nigeria could earn more from oil exports, but higher crude prices may also increase fuel and operating costs for businesses.
Global oil prices rose above $91 a barrel on Tuesday as tensions between the United States and Iran deepened and efforts to restore normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz stalled.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded at $91.07 a barrel around midday, while US West Texas Intermediate rose to $84.99. Both benchmarks touched their highest levels since late July.
The latest increase followed Iran’s warning that it could adopt a more offensive military posture and Washington’s decision not to extend an interim agreement with Tehran.
Iran has also said it will keep the Strait of Hormuz restricted until the United States meets conditions contained in an earlier agreement.
For Nigeria, the return of oil above $90 presents both an opportunity and a risk.
Higher crude prices can boost export earnings and government revenue. But they can also increase the cost of petrol, diesel and other petroleum products, putting fresh pressure on businesses and consumers.
Nigeria could earn more from every barrel
The immediate advantage for Nigeria is the gap between the current market price and the oil price assumed in the federal budget.
Nigeria’s 2026 budget is based on a crude oil benchmark of $64.85 per barrel and production of 1.84 million barrels per day.
With Brent trading above $91, the international price is more than $26 above the government’s benchmark.
In theory, that allows Nigeria to generate more oil revenue than projected.
Higher crude prices can also increase foreign currency inflows into the economy, support government finances and improve the country’s external position.
But Nigeria will only capture the full benefit if it can produce enough oil.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission said crude oil production averaged 1.56 million barrels per day in June 2026, its highest level since April 2020.
When condensates are included, total production reached about 1.74 million barrels per day.
That was a significant improvement, but it remained below the 1.84 million barrels per day assumed in the 2026 budget.
This is the key limitation.
Nigeria can benefit from a high oil price, but lower-than-budgeted production reduces the size of the potential windfall.
Business Elites Africa has previously examined how higher crude prices during the Middle East conflict created a multibillion-dollar revenue opportunity for Nigeria and local oil companies.
The current rally creates another opportunity, provided production remains strong.
But higher oil could push petrol prices up
What benefits Nigeria as a crude exporter can hurt businesses and households through fuel prices.
Crude oil is the main feedstock used to produce petrol, diesel and aviation fuel. When crude becomes more expensive, refiners face higher input costs.
Nigeria’s deregulated downstream market means those changes can increasingly filter into domestic fuel prices.
The country has already experienced this connection several times in 2026.
In July, Dangote Petroleum Refinery increased its petrol loading price by ₦140 to ₦1,215 per litre as crude and other market costs changed.
BEA previously reported on Dangote’s ₦1,215 petrol price and the pressure higher energy costs were putting on the domestic fuel market.
A sustained Brent price above $90 could keep that pressure alive.
Domestic refining reduces Nigeria’s dependence on imported finished petroleum products, but it does not remove exposure to international crude prices.
Crude remains a globally traded commodity. Local refiners therefore still have to account for its market value when setting prices.
