OPEC+ Raises July Oil Output by 188,000 bpd Despite Supply Concerns

OPEC+ has agreed to increase its oil production target for July by 188,000 barrels per day, even as global oil markets continue to face supply pressure linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict and reduced crude movement through the Strait of Hormuz.

The decision was reached during the group’s virtual meeting on Sunday and confirmed in a statement issued after the talks.

This is the fourth straight month that OPEC+ has approved a production increase, as the alliance continues to gradually reverse the voluntary output cuts introduced in 2023 to support oil prices and stabilise the market.

However, the latest increase comes at a difficult time. Several OPEC+ members are still producing below their official targets due to geopolitical tensions, export disruptions, and operational challenges across the Middle East.

OPEC+ Says the Increase Will Begin in July

According to the group, seven participating OPEC+ countries agreed to adjust production upward by 188,000 barrels per day from July 2026.

The alliance said the move is part of its gradual plan to return some of the voluntary cuts announced in April 2023. It also noted that the adjustments could be returned in part or in full, depending on market conditions.

OPEC+ said members would continue to monitor the oil market closely and retain the option to increase, pause, or reverse the production adjustment if needed.

“The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to increase, pause or reverse the phase out of the voluntary production adjustments,” the statement said.

The July increase is the same as the production hike approved for June. However, it is lower than the 206,000 barrels per day increase approved in April and May.

Supply Pressure Remains a Major Concern

The decision comes despite a tight supply environment caused by the continuing U.S.-Iran conflict. The crisis has disrupted crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil routes.

The disruption has affected exports from key Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia, and has made it harder for some suppliers to meet customer demand since late February.

OPEC data showed that the group’s actual crude production averaged about 33.19 million barrels per day in April, sharply lower than the 42.77 million barrels per day recorded in February. This shows the wide gap between official production quotas and what member countries are actually able to produce.

The exit of the United Arab Emirates from OPEC after nearly six decades has also added more pressure to the alliance’s supply management strategy. It has forced the remaining members to make fresh adjustments to production allocations.

Oil Prices Remain Volatile

Oil prices have continued to swing as traders respond to the conflict and shifting supply expectations.

Brent crude, which rose from around $72 per barrel before the U.S.-Iran conflict, eased to about $93 per barrel on Friday. The decline came as traders became more hopeful that the conflict would not turn into a wider regional crisis.

Still, the market remains sensitive. Any fresh disruption in the Middle East could push prices higher again, especially if actual supply continues to fall short of official OPEC+ targets.

Why This Matters

The latest decision shows that OPEC+ is trying to restore supply carefully without flooding the market. The group wants to balance tight supply, high prices, and geopolitical uncertainty.

However, the increase in production may not immediately bring more oil to the global market. Some member countries are still struggling with export limits and operational problems. This means the new quota may have only a small effect on real supply.

For oil-importing countries, any extra supply could help reduce price pressure if tensions ease. But as long as disruptions in the Middle East continue, oil prices are likely to remain volatile.

The move also shows that OPEC+ wants to keep control of the market by staying flexible. The alliance is leaving room to increase, pause, or reverse production changes depending on market reactions in the coming months.