Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) for the 2027 general election, has pledged to maintain the market-driven exchange rate policy currently implemented by the federal government if he wins the upcoming polls. The former governor of Anambra State indicated that while he supports the unification of the foreign exchange market, his administration would place a greater emphasis on domestic production to stabilise the currency.
Speaking on the future of Nigeria’s monetary landscape, Obi noted that the policy of floating the naira is a necessary step toward eliminating arbitrage and restoring transparency to the financial system. His endorsement marks a significant moment of policy convergence between a leading opposition figure and the economic reforms initiated under President Bola Tinubu’s administration, which transitioned the country away from a pegged exchange rate in June 2023.
The shift to a “willing buyer, willing seller” model was intended to attract foreign direct investment and ease the chronic liquidity shortages that have plagued Nigerian businesses for years. However, the implementation has been accompanied by significant volatility, with the naira experiencing substantial devaluation against the US dollar. Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria shows that the apex bank has continued to struggle with balancing market forces and inflationary pressures since the float was introduced.
Obi argued that the fundamental weakness of the naira is not merely a result of the exchange rate mechanism but a symptom of a deeper crisis in national productivity. He maintained that a float policy can only be successful if it is supported by a robust export base and a disciplined fiscal environment that discourages speculative activities. He cautioned that simply allowing the market to determine the price without addressing the supply side of the foreign exchange equation would continue to hurt the manufacturing and SME sectors.
Focus on Production and Institutional Reform
The NDC candidate’s stance highlights a growing consensus among Nigeria’s political elite regarding the necessity of a unified exchange rate, even as the immediate consequences remain a point of public debate. The rapid devaluation of the currency has been a primary driver of headline inflation, which has reached multi-decade highs over the past few years. According to reports from the National Bureau of Statistics, the cost of imported goods and energy has placed an immense burden on household consumption and corporate operating costs.
In his policy outlook, Obi suggested that a more predictable regulatory environment would be the cornerstone of his approach. He emphasised that the Central Bank must operate with a higher degree of independence and transparency to build the confidence required for the float to yield positive results. For investors, the assurance of policy continuity regarding the exchange rate regime is a critical factor in long-term capital allocation decisions within the Nigerian market.
Business leaders have frequently cited foreign exchange volatility as the single greatest obstacle to growth in the current economic cycle. The initial transition to a floating currency, which was widely reported by international observers such as Reuters, was initially hailed as a landmark reform. However, the subsequent lack of dollar liquidity in the official window has often forced firms back to the parallel market, complicating financial planning and eroding profit margins.
Obi’s commitment to retaining the policy suggests that the era of multiple exchange rate windows and heavy administrative subsidies on the naira may be permanently coming to an end, regardless of the outcome of the 2027 elections. This alignment offers a degree of forward-looking certainty for the banking sector and international creditors who have long advocated for a market-clearing rate to address Nigeria’s external imbalances.
The next phase of the 2027 campaign is expected to see more detailed economic blueprints from various candidates. For the business community, the focus will remain on how these leaders intend to manage the transition from a devalued currency to a stable, production-backed exchange rate that can support industrial growth. Obi concluded that his priority would be to ensure that the naira’s value reflects the genuine strength of the Nigerian economy rather than artificial government intervention.
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