The Conditions Behind Shell’s Potential $20bn Nigeria Investment

Shell Plc and its partners in Nigeria are working through plans to develop Bonga South West, a deepwater oil project that could translate into as much as $20 billion in investment if the venture reaches a final investment decision (FID), according to comments by Shell’s Chief Executive Officer, Wael Sawan.

Here are five essential facts that explain what the project is, why the money is not yet guaranteed, and what Nigeria needs to watch next.

1) The $20bn is tied to reaching FID, not a blank cheque

Shell’s CEO says the company is actively working on Bonga South West and that the project could draw around $20bn in foreign direct investment if Shell and its partners progress to the FID stage. In simple terms, Nigeria only “accesses” that scale of capital when the project clears commercial, regulatory, and partner approvals that justify a final commitment.

2) Bonga South West is a major deepwater asset with large reserves and high output potential

Bonga South West sits in Nigeria’s deepwater Niger Delta and is estimated at about 820 million barrels of reserves, with a potential peak production capacity of roughly 220,000 barrels per day. That scale is why Shell describes it as potentially one of the world’s largest energy projects if fully sanctioned and executed.

3) The spend is expected to be split between capital and operating costs that flow through the economy

Sawan indicated the potential $20bn is not all “construction money.” Roughly half is expected as capital expenditure, while the rest would come through operating expenses and other project-related spending. This distinction matters for Nigeria because capex drives new infrastructure and long-term capacity, while opex and related expenditures can sustain local services, logistics, contracting, and supply chains over the project’s life.

4) It is a multi-partner project, and alignment among partners is central to FID

Shell is the largest stakeholder, but it is not alone. The project partner group includes ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Eni, and NNPC. Because FID requires coordination across multiple shareholders, timelines typically depend on partner alignment on cost, fiscal terms, risk allocation, and execution strategy.

5) Nigeria’s incentives and policy signals are positioned as the “bridge” to investment, with pre-FID next

Shell says incremental incentives approved by President Bola Tinubu have given the company clearer visibility toward investing in the project. Sawan also said Shell plans to begin pre-FID work in the coming months, a stage that usually involves detailed technical studies, cost refinement, and final commercial structuring before an FID decision is taken