What Happens If Donald Trump and Kamala Harris Ends in a Tie?

While it’s unlikely, the possibility of a tie in the 2024 U.S. presidential election has captured the imagination of Americans across the political spectrum. In the United States, winning the presidency isn’t about getting the most votes nationwide as we have in Nigeria, instead, it’s all about the Electoral College. 

As the election ends today, here’s what could unfold if Donald Trump and Kamala Harris each receive 269 electoral votes, falling just short of the 270 needed to claim victory.

What the Electoral College means

The U.S. president is chosen by the Electoral College, a group of 538 “electors” representing all 50 states and Washington, D.C. Each state’s share of electors is based on its population, mirroring its representation in Congress (both House and Senate). 

Most states give all of their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the popular vote in that state, except for Maine and Nebraska, which divide theirs by district.

If both candidates reach 269 electoral votes — exactly half — we have a tie. And that’s where things get complicated.

How possible could a tie happen?

For a 269-269 tie, the states would have to split in a very specific way. For example, imagine Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, while Trump takes Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and a single district in Nebraska. That precise combination could lead to a deadlock.

While this scenario is rare, it’s possible in a close election, and it brings us to a process many Americans have never experienced — a “contingent election.”

How the Congress decides the President and Vice President 

When there’s an Electoral College tie, the U.S. Constitution says Congress steps in. Specifically, the House of Representatives elects the president, and the Senate elects the vice president. This process would take place in early January 2025, just two weeks before the presidential inauguration.

Here’s how it would work:

Step 1: The House Picks the President

The House of Representatives would be responsible for choosing the next president. But it’s not a simple majority vote based on each member’s choice. Instead, each state gets one vote, regardless of its population. So, small states like Wyoming have the same weight as large states like California.

The candidate needs to win a majority of the 50 state votes — at least 26 — to become president. Right now, that setup could favor Republicans, as they hold a majority of state delegations in the current House.

Step 2: The Senate Picks the Vice President

While the House is choosing the president, the Senate will choose the vice president in a more familiar way: each senator gets one vote, and a simple majority is needed. If Republicans keep their Senate majority, they could have the advantage in selecting the vice president.

So, if the House and Senate split along party lines, we could end up with a president from one party and a vice president from another — a scenario that could add a whole new layer of tension.

The presidential tie in the 1800

A tie in a U.S. presidential election hasn’t happened in over 200 years. The last time Congress had to break an Electoral College tie was in 1800, when Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr each received the same number of votes.

After 36 rounds of voting, Jefferson was eventually chosen as president. This contentious process led to the 12th Amendment, which clarified some rules around presidential elections, but the basic structure remains the same.

Potential Chaos and Complications

If the House and Senate go into a deadlock, the process could drag on, especially if political disagreements emerge. Each state delegation in the House would need to agree on its vote, and if they can’t reach a decision, it could prolong the uncertainty. 

Rules might even need to be established or adjusted by the House for such an unusual process, leading to intense negotiations and possibly a prolonged period of national tension.

Washington, D.C., for instance, has three electoral votes but doesn’t get a vote in a contingent election, because it’s not a state. This could fuel debates about representation and fairness, especially in such a high-stakes situation.

How this impact Americans

The idea of Congress choosing the president and vice president after a razor-thin election would likely fuel public anxiety and division. 

Many Americans, already skeptical about election integrity, might feel that such a process would only add to their doubts. The prolonged period of decision-making, combined with the intense media scrutiny, could weigh heavily on the public’s patience.