What Nigeria’s Drop to Single-Digit Food Inflation Really Means

In a significant economic development, Nigeria’s food inflation rate dropped to single digits for the first time in more than a decade. This gives a necessary break to households that have faced rising food costs for a long time.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) was released on Monday.

It shows that food inflation, which makes up the largest part of household spending, fell sharply to 8.89 percent year‑on‑year in January 2026. This is down from 10.84 percent in December 2025. The January number is the lowest since May 2015, ending a streak of 128 months of double-digit food inflation.

This milestone is important given the pressures food prices have faced in recent years. At the peak of the crisis in mid‑2024, food inflation reached nearly 41 percent. This worsened the cost-of-living struggle for millions of Nigerians.

What Drove the Decline

Analysts cite several reasons for the easing of food price pressures, which include:

• Improved supply dynamics after a good harvest in key food‑producing states
• Greater stability in the foreign exchange market, which has reduced inflationary pressures on imported goods and logistics
• Temporary government import waivers on certain food items, which helped reduce bottlenecks and improve availability in the market

“The sustained descent into single digits was expected given the steady downward trend and recent policy shifts,” said Muda Yusuf, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE).

He added that the data shows both seasonal improvements and better food supply chains.

Core food staples like yam, eggs, maize, beans, palm oil, cassava, beef, and tomatoes all saw price reductions or much slower price increases in January, contributing to the overall slowdown.

Breadth of Disinflation

The overall inflation rate slipped slightly to 15.10 percent in January 2026. The drop in food prices has been the main factor behind this broader disinflation trend.

Regional data shows a mixed but mostly positive picture:

• Kogi State had the highest year‑on‑year food inflation at 19.84 percent.
• Benue and Adamawa followed at 18.38 percent and 17.29 percent, respectively.
• Meanwhile, Ebonyi (1.69 percent), Abia (3.23 percent), and Imo (3.74 percent) recorded some of the lowest increases in food prices in the country.

What It Means for Nigerians

For everyday Nigerians, this change in food prices may mean less pressure on household budgets, even though basic items are still relatively expensive compared to historical levels.

Experts warn that having single-digit inflation does not mean prices have gone down; it just means they are rising more slowly than before.

Still, consumer sentiment seems cautiously optimistic. With food inflation now below 10 percent for the first time in over ten years, many Nigerians hope this indicates a lasting change in the hardships caused by high food costs.

Looking Ahead

This disinflation trend comes at a crucial time as policymakers, including the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), prepare for monetary policy decisions in the coming weeks.

Economists believe that continued stability in the foreign exchange market and persistent agricultural output will be vital for maintaining this trend.

As Nigeria’s authorities consider their next steps, millions of Nigerians will closely watch to see if this hard-won relief in food prices can last through 2026 and beyond.