Why Russia is at War with Ukraine and Consequences for Africa

In the wake of Thursday, Feb. 24, Russia took the world by surprise as it launched missile attacks on Ukraine territories, protracting the eight-year-long conflict between the two countries. The European Union and Ukraine’s western allies are coming hard on President Vladimir Putin and Russia with stiffer economic sanctions in response to the attacks.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been described as the biggest attack from one country to another in Europe since World War II. Many are now suggesting, albeit premature, that this could degenerate into World War III if diplomatic resolutions are not sought within the shortest time possible.

US President Joe Biden described Russia’s offensive military action in Ukraine as an “unprovoked and unjustified attack”, adding it could cause “catastrophic loss of life.”

“…President Putin has chosen a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering. Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring, and the United States and its Allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive way. The world will hold Russia accountable,” Biden’s statement reads in part.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has responded by declaring martial law throughout the country and urging citizens to stay in their homes. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said, “this is a war of aggression. Ukraine will defend itself and will win”, while calling on the international community to stop Putin.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which is part of why the conflict escalated, has called for an emergency meeting to discuss the attack. NATO’s secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said Russia had “chosen the path of aggression against a sovereign and independent country.”

Africans in Ukraine

There are growing concerns that many foreign nationals currently in Ukraine may miss the window to get out of the country safely as Russia’s “full-scale invasion” is escalating quickly. 

Business Elites Africa gathered that there are thousands of Africans in Ukraine, most of whom are students from Nigeria, Morocco and Egypt. According to Ukraine’s ministry of education and science, as of 2020, 20% of all international students in Ukraine are from these three African countries. 

The report says 8000 Moroccans, 4000 Nigerians and 3,500 Egyptians are studying in Ukraine at the last count, and the number is believed to have climbed since then.

The African students and others from more than 150 countries worldwide throng Ukraine for bachelor’s and master’s degree programs, with Medicine as a specific course of interest for Nigerians with Africa-Ukraine academic relationship that dates back to soviet times.

However, the ongoing crisis between Ukraine and Russia has threatened international students’ education in Ukraine. Last week, many countries, including Kenya, India, and United States, strongly urged their nationals to leave Ukraine temporarily to avoid being caught up in the brewing war between the two neighbours.

President Joe Biden had warned American citizens to leave Ukraine as soon as possible, given Vladimir Putin’s mounting threats to hit the country. “American citizens should leave now,” Biden said in an interview with NBC last week.

Speaking to whether the US would send troops to rescue Americans in Ukraine if the situation gets worse, Biden suggested it’d be unlikely. “It’s not like we’re dealing with a terrorist organisation. We’re dealing with one of the largest armies in the world. It’s a very different situation, and things could go crazy quickly,” he said.

In January, the Nigerian embassy in Ukraine advised its citizens to “take their individual and collective safety very seriously.” The embassy also provided phone numbers for emergency contacts. But Nigeria did not emphatically advise its citizens to leave Ukraine. With the latest attacks, Nigerians are now criticising the government for not being proactive and decisive in its message.

According to reports, many Nigerians may have been stuck in Ukraine amid the early morning attack, which security experts say may worsen. At the time of filing this report, the Nigerian foreign affairs minister, Geoffrey Onyeama or Abike Dabiri-Erewa, who heads the Nigerians in Diaspora Commission (NIDCOM), has not responded to the situation as families whose children or relatives are in Ukraine panic.

Some of the Nigerian students in Ukraine have taken to Twitter, giving mixed situation reports amid fears and anxiety. “Currently in Kharkiv several explosions this morning and still on going. It’s crazy,” one of them, with the handle @ak_eph, wrote.

Another student tweeted: “Hello mr David, am Daniel and I live in kiev, and I need Assistance with safety the bomb woke me up today, please I need the help u want to offer us Nigerians.”

Hello mr David, am Daniel and i live in kiev, and i need Assistance with safety the bomb woke me up today, please i need the help u want to offer us Nigerians

— Nnaji Daniel chidera (@NnajiDanielchi6) February 24, 2022

ALSO READ: How a Russia-Ukraine War Could Devastate Africa’s Economy

Economic implications of Ukraine-Russia conflict

For centuries, Ukraine has been regarded as Europe’s breadbasket as it has the most fertile land on earth. But its fastest-growing agricultural exports do not only serve Europe, but Africa, a continent blessed with abundant natural resources, yet its full potential remains untapped.

According to a Mckinsey report, Africa has the capability to produce up to 20% more cereals and grains in addition to the 2.6 billion tons worldwide output. Yet, grains, vegetable oils, and many other products produced in Ukraine are crucial to feeding African and Asian populations.

Among other top agricultural products Ukraine exports, wheat is its Ukraine biggest export. In 2020, the country exported about 18 million metric tons of wheat out of a total harvest of 24 million metric tons, making it the world’s fifth-largest exporter of the product.

Data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) show that Ukraine’s many African countries are the biggest importers of Ukraine’s wheat. For instance, about 50% of the wheat consumed in Lebanon in 2020 was imported from Ukraine. Lebanon replies on bread and other grain products for 35 percent of its population’s calory intake.

The situation is more dire for some of the countries that depend on Ukrainian wheat because most of them are already battling food insecurity from ongoing political instability. For example, Yemen imports 22% of Ukrainian wheat while Libya imports 43%. According to the data, Egypt is the largest consumer of Ukrainian wheat – the country imported more than 3 million metric tons in 2020.

Other importers of Ukrainian wheat are Malaysia with 28%, Indonesia, 28% and Bangladesh, 21%, and seven others. Ukraine is also a top exporter of corn, barley and rye.

Sadly, the most productive agricultural part of Ukraine is the eastern regions, which are most susceptible to Russian attacks. Russia invaded Ukraine through the east, comprising Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Kherson oblasts, Donetsk and Luhansk. 

Russian forces and supporters have reportedly almost occupied Donetsk and Luhansk.

What caused the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

Ukraine, a Soviet republic, was part of the Russian Empire, but it gained independence in 1991 when the United Socialist Soviet Republic split.

The crisis began in November 2013 in Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital. Ukrainians hit the streets protesting the decision by ousted President Viktor Yanukovych to reject an economic integration deal with the European Union, which they believed would benefit the country.

As the protests grew more prominent, Yanukovych, who was loyal to Vladimir Putin, ordered a violent crackdown on the protesters. This led to full-blown violence that forced Yanukovych to flee Ukraine in February 2014. He was subsequently impeached.

In March 2014, Russia deployed troops to the Crimea region, which was part of the Ukraine territory, before the area’s inhabitants voted to be joined with Russia in a disputed local referendum. Putin’s basis for sending forces to the region was that the rights of Russian citizens and Russian speakers in Crimea and southeast Ukraine must be protected. This degenerated into an ethnic crisis.

Two months after Crimea was under Russia’s control, pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions also held a referendum and declared independence from Ukraine. The violence between the separatist forces and the Ukrainian military left about 14,000 people dead and 24,000 injured. Russia, however, denied involvement in the fatal crisis.

The Ukraine crisis took an international dimension in July 2014 when a Malaysian Airline flight was attacked over Ukrainian airspace, leaving all 298 passengers on board dead. This dragged the United States and the European Union (EU) into the mix. In 2015, Dutch air accident investigators concluded that a Russian-built surface-to-air missile shot down the plane. 

The investigators, in September 2016, said the Russia-owned missile system was moved into eastern Ukraine before the plane was shot down and moved back to Russia afterwards.

In an attempt to broker a ceasefire deal in February 2015 between Russia and Ukraine, which also involved France and Germany, Marathon peace negotiations drafted the Minsk Accord. The agreement, among other terms, declared the withdrawal of heavy weaponry and complete Ukrainian government control throughout the conflict areas. But the parties, unfortunately, failed to reach a resolution. 

This necessitated NATO’s decision to deploy four battalions to Eastern Europe in April 2016. NATO said its troops would rotate through Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland to forestall any future Russian attacks in Europe. Two US Army tank brigades joined NATO forces to bolster the defence against Russia.

Since then, Putin has continued to oppose Ukraine’s relationship with the EU and plans to join NATO until he authorised the “special military operations” against Ukraine early Thursday. He warned that any attempt by any country to interfere would lead to “consequences you have never seen.”