2027 Elections: Obi, Kwankwaso Gain Early Advantage Over Tinubu in New Survey

A new voter sentiment survey has placed Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso ahead of President Bola Tinubu as early political calculations for the 2027 general elections begin to take shape.

The survey, conducted by SBM Intelligence, suggests that the opposition platform linked with Obi and Kwankwaso currently enjoys stronger national support than the ruling All Progressives Congress. It also points to deep public dissatisfaction with the current administration, especially over the economy, cost of living, insecurity, unemployment, and power supply.

According to the findings, national voting intention stands at 57.4 percent for the opposition NDC, compared to 11.3 percent for the APC and 10.3 percent for the ADC. Another 11.3 percent of respondents remain undecided.

While the numbers appear troubling for the ruling party, the survey does not mean the 2027 election has already been decided. Instead, it reveals the mood of voters at this stage. It also shows where the real contest may happen: voter turnout, regional mobilisation, undecided voters, and the ability of each political camp to turn public sentiment into actual votes.

Turnout May Decide the 2027 Election

One of the strongest messages from the survey is that voter turnout could determine the outcome of the next presidential election.

Under a low-turnout scenario, support for the opposition NDC reportedly drops to 31.7 percent. But under a high-turnout scenario, that support rises sharply to 64.9 percent. This suggests that Obi and Kwankwaso may have strong public goodwill, but goodwill alone will not win an election.

The 2023 election already showed that popularity, anger, and online enthusiasm do not always translate into victory at the polling unit. In 2027, the opposition will need to convert supporters into registered voters, registered voters into active campaign participants, and campaign enthusiasm into real turnout on election day.

For Tinubu and the APC, the challenge is different. The ruling party must rebuild public confidence, defend its record, and keep its political structure active across key regions. Incumbency gives the APC access, visibility, and influence. But the survey suggests that those advantages may not be enough if voter frustration remains high.

Southwest and Northeast Could Become Major Battlegrounds

The survey identifies the Southwest and Northeast as two regions that could shape the final outcome.

The Southwest is politically important because it is President Tinubu’s home base. Yet the survey shows that the region has the lowest high-turnout intention and a large number of undecided voters. It also remains one of the few zones where the APC still retains a significant support base.

Voters in the southwest region may face a political choice between regional loyalty and national dissatisfaction. Tinubu’s influence remains strong, but the survey suggests that some voters are still weighing their options. If the APC holds the Southwest firmly, it could reduce the opposition’s national advantage. If the opposition makes serious gains there, Tinubu’s re-election path could become more difficult.

The Northeast presents another kind of challenge. Unlike other regions where one bloc appears to have clearer momentum, voter preference in the Northeast is more fragmented. The APC, ADC, NDC, and undecided voters all appear to have space in the region.

This means that alliances, candidate selection, campaign messaging, and local political structures may matter more there than national popularity alone.

Obi’s Popularity Still Matters

Peter Obi remains one of the most influential opposition figures in Nigeria’s current political landscape. His 2023 campaign changed the tone of national politics by attracting young voters, urban professionals, first-time voters, and Nigerians frustrated with the old political order.

politics in Nigeria is not driven by popularity alone. It is also driven by party machinery, regional alliances, polling unit agents, legal preparedness, campaign financing, and elite negotiations. Obi’s challenge is to turn public approval into a broader electoral structure.

Kwankwaso also brings a different political advantage. His strength, especially in parts of the North, comes from a long-standing grassroots network. If both men can build a disciplined political front, they may become a stronger opposition force than they were separately in 2023.

But if opposition politics becomes divided again, the APC may benefit from vote-splitting.

Tinubu Faces a Public Confidence Test

For President Tinubu, the survey should serve as an early warning sign.

His administration has defended major economic reforms as necessary for long-term stability. But many Nigerians are still dealing with high food prices, weak purchasing power, rising transport costs, unemployment, and insecurity.

Elections are often decided by how voters feel in their daily lives. If households continue to feel economic pressure, campaign promises may not be enough to change the mood. The APC will need to show visible improvement before the election season fully begins.

That could include stronger results on inflation, food security, power supply, job creation, and public safety. Without that, the opposition will continue to frame 2027 as a referendum on hardship.

A Survey, Not a Final Verdict

Despite the strong numbers for Obi and Kwankwaso, the survey should not be treated as a final prediction. It is a snapshot of voter sentiment before the official campaign season.

Many things can still change before 2027.

Political alliances may shift. Candidates may change. Parties may merge or split. The economy may improve or worsen. New controversies may emerge. INEC’s credibility, voter registration, security, and campaign strategy will also play major roles.

Still, the message from the survey is clear: the 2027 race may be more competitive than the ruling party would like.

For the opposition, the opportunity is real. For Tinubu, the warning is serious. For Nigerian voters, the next election may come down to one question: who can turn frustration into turnout?