Dangote Predicts Naira at N1,100 per Dollar by End of 2026

Nigeria’s industrial leader, Aliko Dangote, chairman of the Dangote Group, has predicted a much stronger Nigerian naira. He forecasts it could reach N1,100 against the US dollar by the end of 2026. This stands in stark contrast to current exchange rates and many independent economic forecasts.

According to reports, during the launch of the National Industrial Policy 2025 in Abuja on Tuesday, Dangote pointed out “clear signs” that recent economic reforms and growth in local production could support a continued rise in the naira.

“Today, the dollar is N1,340. I can assure you with what I know, blocking all this importation… naira this year will be as low as N1,100 if we are lucky,” Dangote told government officials, including Vice‑President Kashim Shettima.

His comments occur amid a broader discussion about Nigeria’s exchange rate in 2026. Recently, the naira has gained strength, with official market rates around N1,335 to N1,350 per dollar, while the parallel (black) market is somewhat weaker.

Economic Context: Divergent Forecasts on FX Outlook

Dangote’s prediction is below the estimates from many analysts for 2026. Independent economic forecasts suggest the naira will likely remain under pressure but within a more stable range compared to the severe fluctuations of recent years.

For instance, the chief economist at the Africa Export-Import Bank recently expected the naira to trade between N1,350 and N1,450 per dollar by year-end, even if foreign exchange inflows and reserves improve moderately.

Likewise, forecasts from the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) indicate exchange rates closer to N1,480 per dollar with strong foreign reserves.

Other market analysts have also indicated the naira might fluctuate within a wider range. Some predict rates between N1,100 and N1,250 per dollar under favorable conditions, while others expect pressures to keep the rate above those levels.

Manufacturing, Import Substitution, and FX Supply

Dangote linked his perspective directly to Nigeria’s industrial growth. He believes that increased local production and reduced reliance on imports will lessen the demand for foreign exchange.

He expressed that manufacturers are “very, very happy” with recent policy changes and highlighted the need for domestic substitutes for goods that rely on trade.

“What you should be is to manufacture all the things that we need,” he said, underscoring a long‑held view that deeper industrialization is vital for stabilizing the currency.

Broader Market Signals

While opinions vary, there are signs that Nigeria’s external sector may be improving. The naira’s recent rise have provided tentative support for the currency.

At the same time, other leading business figures are expressing optimism. Billionaire investor Femi Otedola has stated that with full domestic refining capacity, the naira could fall below N1,000 per dollar by the end of 2026.

He credits this potential gain to reduced import needs and stronger foreign exchange inflows.

Analysts Urge Caution

Despite these positive indicators, underlying challenges remain significant. Issues like import dependence, foreign exchange liquidity issues, and global commodity price risks could hinder progress.

Dangote’s forecast brings a prominent perspective to the currency discussion.

It’s linked not just to exchange rates but also to industrial strategy, import substitution, and broader economic reform priorities.