The United States and China are intensifying a geopolitical race to secure deep-sea mining rights for critical minerals estimated to be worth up to $16 trillion, creating potential economic instability for Africa’s land-based mining sectors.
The competition focuses on the extraction of polymetallic nodules—potato-sized rocks found on the ocean floor—which contain high concentrations of cobalt, nickel, copper, and manganese.
These minerals are essential for the global transition to green energy, specifically for the production of electric vehicle (EV) batteries and renewable energy storage systems. According to reports on the race for seabed resources, the scale of these deposits could fundamentally alter the global supply chain for critical metals.
The race is currently managed through the International Seabed Authority (ISA), a UN-mandated body based in Jamaica that regulates mining in international waters. While China currently holds the most exploration contracts, the US is seeking ways to secure its own supply chains to reduce reliance on Chinese processing and refining.
For African nations, the shift toward the seabed is not merely an environmental concern but a significant commercial risk. Africa holds the world’s largest terrestrial reserves of many of these minerals, with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) producing approximately 70% of the world’s cobalt.
Potential Disruption to African Mineral Markets
The primary concern for African economies is the potential for a supply shock that could crash global mineral prices. If deep-sea mining becomes commercially viable at scale, the sudden influx of seabed cobalt and nickel could undercut the market value of land-based ores.
Such a price drop would directly impact the national budgets of mineral-dependent states. In the DRC, cobalt exports are a primary driver of foreign exchange earnings and government revenue.
Investment analysts suggest that the prospect of cheaper seabed minerals could deter long-term foreign direct investment (FDI) in African mining infrastructure. Investors may hesitate to fund expensive land-based projects if the ocean provides a more concentrated and accessible source of raw materials.
Furthermore, the technical requirements for deep-sea mining are concentrated in a few wealthy nations. Unlike terrestrial mining, which provides direct employment and local infrastructure development in Africa, seabed mining is conducted by highly automated systems operated from distant vessels, offering little to no local economic benefit for African coastal states.
The geopolitical tension between Washington and Beijing further complicates the landscape. The US is not a party to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which limits its ability to apply for ISA contracts. However, it is exploring bilateral agreements and domestic legislation to ensure it is not locked out of the $16 trillion resource pool.
China, conversely, has integrated seabed exploration into its broader strategic goals to dominate the entire battery value chain, from raw extraction to final assembly.
A growing coalition of countries and environmental organisations is calling for a moratorium on deep-sea mining, citing the risk of irreversible damage to marine ecosystems. However, the commercial pressure to secure “battery metals” is driving the US and China to push through regulatory hurdles.
The next critical phase will depend on the ISA’s finalisation of the “Mining Code,” the set of rules that will govern how minerals are extracted and how royalties are shared. African mining ministries are closely monitoring these negotiations to determine if the code includes protections against market dumping.
The ISA is expected to hold further sessions to resolve the deadlock over these regulations, as several member states continue to demand a precautionary pause before commercial extraction begins.
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