More than three years after President Bola Tinubu launched one of Nigeria’s most aggressive economic reform programmes in decades, the numbers now tell two different stories.
On one side, inflation has moderated, economic growth has strengthened, foreign exchange conditions have stabilised and government revenues have risen. On the other, millions of Nigerians remain poorer, food still costs more, borrowing remains punishing, and household incomes have struggled to catch up with the cost of living.
That disconnect explains why Tinubu’s economy remains deeply unpopular with many Nigerians even as some macroeconomic indicators improve.
The National Bureau of Statistics says Nigeria’s economy grew 3.89% in real terms in the first quarter of 2026, up from 3.13% a year earlier. Headline inflation has also fallen sharply from its 2024 highs to 15.91%, according to the latest official data.
But falling inflation doesn’t mean prices are falling. It means prices are rising more slowly. For households already battered by years of steep increases in food, transport, electricity and housing costs, that distinction matters.
Tinubu’s Reforms Came at a Cost
Tinubu began the economic reset almost immediately after he took office on May 29, 2023. His declaration that the petrol subsidy was gone came first, followed by reforms to the foreign exchange market, tighter monetary policy, banking recapitalisation, tax changes and efforts to raise government revenue.
The case for reform was hard to dismiss. Nigeria had maintained an expensive petrol subsidy, multiple exchange rates had distorted the foreign exchange market, and weak government revenues had left the country with little fiscal room.
President Tinubu argues that removing the subsidy kept Nigeria from sliding toward fiscal collapse. In May 2026, he said the decision was painful but necessary to prevent what he described as imminent bankruptcy.
The problem lay in how quickly the cost moved from government accounts to household budgets. Petrol prices surged. Transport got more expensive. The naira weakened sharply after exchange-rate reform, driving up the local cost of imported food, machinery, medicines and other products.
Those shocks hit an economy where wages were already weak.
Muda Yusuf, chief executive of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, told Nairametrics that while the reforms were broadly necessary, they came with “very huge social costs.”
His central concern wasn’t simply whether the policies made economic sense, but whether the government did enough to protect people from their immediate impact. That criticism still sits at the heart of the argument over Tinubu’s economy.
Economy Stabilises, Households Still Struggle
Stronger evidence now shows the reforms have improved some of Nigeria’s macroeconomic fundamentals.
The Presidency says revenue mobilisation has risen significantly since 2023, while improved foreign exchange liquidity and a more market-driven currency system have made the FX market more predictable for large companies and investors.
Nigeria’s first-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 3.89% also beat the 3.13% recorded a year earlier. Manufacturing expanded 3.29%, while the services sector remained a major growth driver. Yet those improvements haven’t produced an equally strong recovery in living standards.
The World Bank estimates that about 63% of Nigerians lived below the national poverty line in 2025, up from 61% in 2024. It estimates that another seven million people fell into poverty during 2025, even as the broader economy grew more stable.
That’s the contradiction confronting the government: Nigeria can post stronger reserves, higher revenue, slower inflation and positive GDP growth while households still feel poorer.
For an administration preparing to defend its record ahead of the 2027 election, the political problem is obvious. Voters experience the economy through their wallets, not through macroeconomic dashboards.
Central Bank of Nigeria has used high interest rates as part of its effort to control inflation and support currency stability. At its July 2026 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee held the benchmark Monetary Policy Rate at 26.5%.
That tight monetary stance may help restrain inflation, but it also makes borrowing expensive. Consumers pay more for credit. Companies face higher financing costs. Businesses carrying large debt have less room to invest, hire more workers or expand production.
This is why some economists argue that Nigeria’s monetary and fiscal policies need to work more closely together. If the government keeps borrowing heavily while the CBN holds rates high, private-sector borrowers end up competing with government securities that offer attractive yields at lower risk.
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Tinubu’s Biggest Economic Challenge
The government’s strongest argument is that the old system was unsustainable. Its weakest argument is that Nigerians should keep waiting indefinitely for the gains.
World Bank itself, while backing many of Nigeria’s reforms, has repeatedly stressed that macroeconomic stability alone isn’t enough.
Its assessment of Nigeria finds that the reforms have strengthened revenues, reserves and economic stability, but widespread poverty, food insecurity and weak job creation remain major problems. Poor households can spend as much as 70% of their income on food, which leaves them especially vulnerable to price increases.
The rollout of cash transfers has also moved slower than originally planned, according to the World Bank. That has weakened one of the mechanisms meant to shield vulnerable households from the impact of reform.This is where the sequencing argument matters.
University of Abuja economist Olu Olajemgbesi told Nairametrics that his biggest criticism wasn’t necessarily the direction of reform but its “speed and sequencing” without strong enough compensatory measures.
In other words, Nigeria may have attempted several necessary corrections at once without building a strong enough welfare bridge between the old economy and the new one.
The next phase of Tinubu’s economic programme will face a different test than the first.Removing subsidies, changing exchange-rate policy and raising revenues can stand as structural reforms on their own. But after three years, the public benchmark has shifted.
Can food become more affordable? How can usehold income grow faster than prices? Can Nigerians find better-paying jobs? Can electricity, transport, healthcare and housing become easier to afford? Could higher government revenues produce visible improvements in public services?
Tinubu’s government increasingly points to declining inflation, stronger corporate earnings, higher revenues and improved macroeconomic stability as evidence that the painful reforms are working. Those gains matter. But they won’t resolve public anger on their own.
