President Hakainde Hichilema has been sworn in for a second term at the National Heroes Stadium in Lusaka, securing a mandate that international investors view as a signal of continued macroeconomic stability and mining sector liberalisation.
The inauguration follows a period of intense fiscal correction and diplomatic negotiation, as Hichilema sought to move Zambia away from its status as a “zombie” debtor. His first term was defined by a rigorous effort to restore relations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and secure a sustainable debt restructuring framework.
While the event was celebrated by the business community, it was marked by notable diplomatic absences. The lack of representation from South Africa, a regional economic powerhouse, suggests emerging frictions within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) at a time when Zambia is positioning itself as a hub for critical minerals.
Investors have largely welcomed the continuity. Under Hichilema, Zambia has moved to attract significant foreign direct investment in the copper belt, aiming to reverse the decline in production that plagued the previous administration. The government has consistently messaged a commitment to the rule of law and the protection of property rights to woo global miners.
Debt Restructuring and Fiscal Stability
The central pillar of Hichilema’s economic agenda remains the full implementation of the debt restructuring deal. Zambia became the first African nation to default during the pandemic, and the subsequent years were spent in a costly stalemate with official creditors under the G20 Common Framework.
According to data from the World Bank, the successful renegotiation of these bonds has reduced immediate liquidity pressures on the treasury. This has allowed the government to shift focus toward social spending and infrastructure, although the high cost of living remains a primary point of contention for the domestic opposition.
The president’s second term is expected to prioritise the completion of the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme. This framework requires Zambia to maintain strict fiscal discipline and implement tax reforms to broaden the revenue base without stifling the growth of small and medium enterprises.
Mining remains the primary engine for this growth. Hichilema has set an ambitious target to increase copper production to 3 million tonnes per annum. To achieve this, his administration has courted major players such as First Quantum Minerals and Barrick Gold, while simplifying the regulatory hurdles for new entrants into the sector.
The African Development Bank has previously highlighted Zambia’s potential to lead the green energy transition due to its vast deposits of copper and cobalt. The administration’s ability to translate these reserves into industrialised value addition, rather than just raw ore exports, will be a key metric of success for the next five years.
Domestically, the second term begins with a fragile political landscape. The absence of several opposition figures at the swearing-in ceremony underscores a deepening divide over the pace of economic recovery. While macro-indicators have improved, the trickle-down effect to the rural poor has been slow, leaving Hichilema vulnerable to populism.
The silence from Pretoria is also viewed by analysts as a potential hurdle for cross-border trade and regional integration. South Africa remains one of Zambia’s most critical trading partners, and any diplomatic freeze could complicate logistics and investment flows along the North-South Corridor.
The administration is now expected to present a new legislative agenda to parliament, with a focus on energy security and the diversification of the agricultural sector to reduce reliance on rain-fed maize production.
The next critical milestone will be the upcoming IMF review of Zambia’s economic performance, which will determine the disbursement of further funds and signal to the markets whether the country’s fiscal turnaround is permanent.
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