A prominent Nigerian geopolitical analyst has warned that the country’s next large-scale unrest is more likely to be triggered by the actions of the Nigeria Police Force (NPF) than by political actors or ethnic militias. Cheta Nwanze, Lead Partner at SBM Intelligence, articulated this cautionary perspective in a recent opinion piece, highlighting the accumulated public anger over perceived police brutality and lack of accountability.
Nwanze’s analysis, published in Premium Times, suggests that a single flashpoint – such as a routine police stop turning fatal or a protest escalating into violence – could ignite widespread public rage. He points to incidents like road blockades by protesters, citing Port Harcourt as an example, as indicators of existing societal friction that could quickly boil over.
This assessment arrives amidst ongoing concerns about the NPF’s operational conduct and its relationship with the Nigerian populace, a relationship significantly strained by past events, most notably the nationwide #EndSARS protests in October 2020. The protests, primarily driven by youth, vehemently opposed police brutality, extortion, and extrajudicial killings by the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS), a unit since disbanded.
The Shadow of #EndSARS and Unfulfilled Reforms
The #EndSARS movement laid bare the deep-seated mistrust and resentment many Nigerians harbour towards the police. While the government responded by disbanding SARS and establishing judicial panels of inquiry across states to address allegations of misconduct and compensate victims, progress on comprehensive police reform has been widely criticised as slow and insufficient.
Many of the recommendations from these panels, including prosecuting culpable officers and implementing systemic changes, have faced delays or outright non-implementation. This perceived lack of accountability continues to fuel public cynicism and reinforces Nwanze’s warning that underlying grievances remain unaddressed, potentially creating fertile ground for future agitation.
Nwanze’s argument distinguishes the potential trigger of police actions from other traditional sources of conflict in Nigeria, such as politically motivated violence or ethno-religious clashes. He implies that police misconduct is a universal grievance that transcends regional and ethnic divides, affecting a broad spectrum of the population and thus capable of mobilising a wider, more spontaneous response.
For businesses operating in Nigeria, the prospect of police-triggered unrest carries significant implications. Widespread protests, road closures, and potential clashes could disrupt supply chains, impact commerce, deter foreign investment, and exacerbate existing economic vulnerabilities. The #EndSARS protests, for instance, led to substantial economic losses due to property destruction, looting, and prolonged business closures in various cities.
Experts have consistently called for holistic police reform encompassing improved welfare and training for officers, enhanced oversight mechanisms, strict enforcement of accountability for misconduct, and a shift towards community policing models. Despite the passage of the Nigeria Police Act 2020, which aims to improve police relations with the public, its impact has yet to translate into a fundamental change in public perception or operational realities.
The current Nigerian government, like its predecessors, faces the formidable challenge of rebuilding public trust in its law enforcement agencies. Failure to adequately address issues of police brutality and impunity risks validating Nwanze’s ominous prediction, potentially plunging the nation into another wave of civil unrest with profound socio-economic consequences that could derail efforts towards stability and growth.
Explore more News stories from Business Elites Africa.
