President Bola Tinubu’s administration has secured $11.40 billion in World Bank loan approvals within about three years, placing it close to the $14.59 billion approved during former President Muhammadu Buhari’s full eight years in office.
The pace of approvals shows how strongly the current government has leaned on multilateral financing to support reforms, infrastructure, social programmes, agriculture, energy, education and healthcare. It also raises a familiar question in Nigeria’s debt debate: is the country borrowing to build productive capacity, or simply expanding its repayment burden?
The figures show that Tinubu has already secured about 78.2 per cent of the total World Bank approvals recorded under Buhari. At the current pace, the administration would need another $3.19 billion in approvals to overtake Buhari’s total.
Approvals Are Rising, But Disbursement Remains Slow
Although the approvals look large on paper, Nigeria has not received most of the money. Out of the $11.40 billion approved under Tinubu, only $2.32 billion had been disbursed, leaving about $8.41 billion still available. That puts the disbursement rate at roughly 20.3 per cent.
Buhari-era World Bank projects show a much higher implementation level because many of them have either matured, closed or moved closer to completion. Out of the $14.59 billion approved during Buhari’s presidency, $11.94 billion had been disbursed, while $1.53 billion remained available.
This difference matters. Loan approval does not mean immediate cash release. World Bank-backed projects usually receive funds in stages after the government meets agreed conditions, milestones or project requirements.
Reform Loans Dominate Tinubu’s Portfolio
The biggest single approval under Tinubu came in June 2024, when the World Bank approved a $2.25 billion package for Nigeria. The package included $1.5 billion for the Nigeria Reforms for Economic Stabilisation to Enable Transformation programme and $750 million for the Accelerating Resource Mobilisation Reforms programme. Reuters also reported that the World Bank approved the financing to support Nigeria’s reforms and strengthen revenue mobilisation after the government removed petrol subsidy and changed the foreign exchange system.
Those reforms became the defining economic decisions of Tinubu’s early presidency. The removal of petrol subsidy and the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market changed government finances, but they also pushed up transport costs, food prices and inflation, putting pressure on households.
The World Bank has continued to argue that Nigeria needs those reforms to restore stability and strengthen public finances. But labour groups, civil society organisations and opposition voices have criticised the speed of the reforms and their effect on ordinary Nigerians.
New $1.25bn Package Targets Jobs and Private Investment
Tinubu’s World Bank portfolio grew again in 2026 after the bank approved the Nigeria Actions for Investment and Jobs Acceleration programme. The financing includes two facilities worth $500 million and $750 million, bringing the total to $1.25 billion.
The approval forms part of the World Bank’s new Country Partnership Framework for Nigeria covering 2026 to 2032. The plan focuses on private sector-led growth, job creation, energy access, digital infrastructure and agricultural productivity. Reuters also confirmed that the World Bank backed the 2026–2032 framework with $1.25 billion to support jobs, private investment and access to energy, digital and agricultural services.
Power, Agriculture and Human Capital Take Major Shares
The power sector remains one of the largest beneficiaries of World Bank financing in Nigeria. Under Tinubu, the bank approved $750 million for the Power Sector Recovery Performance-Based Operation in June 2023 and another $750 million for the Nigeria Distributed Access through Renewable Energy Scale-up Project in December 2023.
The renewable energy programme aims to provide new or improved electricity access to about 17.5 million Nigerians through distributed energy solutions. However, disbursement remains limited, with only one of the three facilities under the project recording a drawdown.
Agriculture has also attracted fresh support. In March 2026, the World Bank approved $500 million for the Nigeria Sustainable Agricultural Value-Chains for Growth project. The project targets smallholder farmers, value chains, market access and job creation, but it had not recorded any disbursement at the time of the latest update.
Education, healthcare, women’s empowerment and nutrition also feature strongly. The Adolescent Girls Initiative for Learning and Empowerment received $700 million in September 2023, while the Nigeria for Women Programme Scale-Up Project received $500 million in June 2023.
In September 2024, the World Bank approved three projects worth a combined $1.5 billion for education, primary healthcare and irrigation. But implementation remains at an early stage, with combined disbursements of only $111.35 million, or about 7.4 per cent of the approved amount.
Debt Concerns Are Growing
The faster pace of World Bank approvals comes as Nigeria’s external debt burden continues to rise. Nigeria’s debt to the World Bank increased by $2.08 billion in one year, reaching $19.89 billion as of December 31, 2025, according to Debt Management Office data cited in the report.
World Bank loans accounted for 38.36 per cent of Nigeria’s total external debt stock of $51.86 billion at the end of 2025.
Economists remain divided on what the rising commitments mean for Nigeria. Some argue that World Bank loans offer better terms than commercial borrowing because they usually come with lower interest rates and longer repayment periods. Others warn that Nigeria’s weak revenue base, high debt servicing costs and foreign exchange pressure could make even concessional loans difficult to manage if the money does not deliver measurable economic returns.
The central issue is not only how much Nigeria borrows. The bigger test is whether the loans fund projects that improve productivity, create jobs, expand public services and generate enough growth to support repayment.
The Real Test Is Utilisation
Tinubu’s borrowing record now sits at the centre of Nigeria’s economic story. On one side, the administration says it needs financing to stabilise the economy, fund reforms and invest in growth sectors. On the other side, critics worry that the country keeps expanding its loan book without seeing enough improvement in living standards, infrastructure or public service delivery.
The numbers show a clear trend: World Bank approvals have accelerated under Tinubu. The administration has averaged about $3.7 billion in approvals per year since May 2023, compared with about $1.82 billion annually under Buhari.
But approval is only the first step. Nigeria still has to convert these commitments into real projects, visible outcomes and stronger repayment capacity.
For now, Tinubu’s World Bank loan pipeline is growing faster than the money is being released. That gives the administration both an opportunity and a burden. If the projects work, the loans could support reforms, infrastructure and social protection. If they fail, Nigeria may be left with another layer of debt and another round of questions about where the money went.
