Iran-US-Israel conflict: Nigerians to Pay More for Petrol as Oil Prices Surge

Nigerians may begin to see higher petrol prices nationwide from Tuesday, March 3, and Wednesday, March 4, 2026, as marketers and retailers react to a fresh increase in the fuel depot price.

The expected hike follows Dangote Refinery’s decision to raise its gantry price for Premium Motor Spirit, also known as petrol, to N874 per litre on Monday. The adjustment comes amid growing tension in the Middle East, where the escalating conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel has triggered fresh concerns over global oil supply and pushed crude prices higher.

The refinery’s latest price review represents an increase of about N75 per litre, reflecting the pressure from rising international crude oil prices.

The tension in the region worsened after Iranian leaders, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, were reportedly killed in a strike on Friday night. Iran later launched retaliatory attacks on US allies in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia. On Monday, Iran also struck oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, worsening fears about energy supply disruptions.

The crisis has also affected shipping activities through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes, leading to a suspension of operations there. Saudi Arabia’s major refinery facility in Ras Tanura was reportedly hit by an Iranian drone, forcing a shutdown. In Qatar, attacks affecting QatarEnergy also led to a suspension of LNG production, raising concerns about the global gas market.

By Monday, crude prices had climbed to $78.50 per barrel for Brent and $71.84 for West Texas Intermediate. Analysts say if the Middle East crisis drags on, global gas prices could also rise sharply, especially for supplies headed to Europe and Asia.

At filling stations, petrol was already selling at between N870 and N899 per litre on Monday night. However, an official at a Dangote-linked MRS station in Abuja said a new pump price would likely take effect from Tuesday.

Industry stakeholders say the situation could push retail petrol prices to between N980 and N1,000 per litre in parts of the Federal Capital Territory and nearby areas.

The spokesperson of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, said the increase is a direct consequence of rising global crude oil prices caused by the conflict. He noted that while supply may remain available, higher international prices will inevitably affect the local market.

He also urged Nigerians not to panic-buy, expressing confidence that Dangote Refinery would continue to supply products and that the federal government would sustain crude supply to local refiners under the naira-based arrangement.

Also speaking, the National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, Billy Gillis-Harry, said the connection is straightforward: once crude oil prices rise because of geopolitical instability, local fuel prices in Nigeria are likely to follow.

According to him, any disruption involving a major oil-producing country like Iran will affect global supply, and Nigerian refiners will naturally respond by adjusting prices upward.