Professor Jibrin Ibrahim has called on Nigeria’s opposition parties to form a viable coalition to challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), arguing that the APC’s own ascent to power provides a clear blueprint for defeating an incumbent president.
The political scientist asserted that the ruling party possesses an intimate understanding of how opposition forces can overcome internal differences and create the necessary synergy to win a national election. This is because the APC was itself the product of a strategic merger between 2013 and 2015.
Ibrahim maintains that for any current opposition movement to be successful, it must move beyond fragmented efforts and negotiate a framework for a single candidate who can mobilise a broad base of support across the country.
The 2015 APC Merger Precedent
Writing on the feasibility of a viable opposition coalition, Ibrahim recalled the process that led to the APC’s victory in the 2015 general elections. He noted that the party was formed when the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), and a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) agreed to merge.
According to Ibrahim, the success of that merger lay in the parties’ ability to negotiate and agree on how a candidate would emerge. This process allowed them to consolidate their voting blocs and prevent the splitting of opposition votes, which had previously benefited the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
The 2015 coalition ended the PDP’s 16-year hold on the presidency by fielding Muhammadu Buhari, who successfully galvanised support across the North and South. Ibrahim argues that this historical evidence proves that a unified opposition is not only possible but is the most effective tool for removing an incumbent administration from power.
The current political landscape, however, remains fragmented. Various opposition parties continue to operate in silos, often competing against one another even while expressing shared grievances against the ruling party. Ibrahim suggests that without a formal agreement on a single candidate and a shared electoral strategy, the opposition will struggle to overcome the structural advantages held by the APC.
The call for a coalition comes amid ongoing discussions regarding the role of smaller parties, including the African Democratic Congress (ADC), in building a broader front. The primary challenge remains the ego and interests of individual party leaders who may be reluctant to step aside for a consensus candidate.
The feasibility of such a movement depends on whether current opposition leaders can replicate the willingness to compromise shown by the founders of the APC a decade ago. Failure to reach such an agreement likely means the opposition will enter the next electoral cycle divided, leaving the ruling party with a significant advantage.
The next critical step for these parties involves initiating formal negotiations to establish a shared platform and a transparent mechanism for candidate selection before the next election cycle begins.
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