Sam Zubairu, President and CEO of Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), has called on the Nigerian government to revise its economic ambitions upward, targeting a $2 trillion economy instead of the current $1 trillion goal.
Zubairu argues that the federal government’s target is too modest when measured against Nigeria’s population size, resource endowment and latent industrial potential.
The AFC chief suggested that settling for a $1 trillion target could lead to under-investment and a failure to fully leverage the country’s comparative advantages in a global market.
Nigeria’s current economic trajectory remains volatile, influenced by currency fluctuations and a heavy reliance on crude oil exports. The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics continues to show a struggle to maintain consistent real growth that matches population increases.
Zubairu believes that a more aggressive target would force a deeper structural shift in how the country manages its assets and attracts foreign direct investment.
He noted that for Nigeria to reach such a scale, it must move beyond the current focus on consumption and transition toward a production-led economy.
Infrastructure and Energy as Growth Drivers
The path to a $2 trillion economy requires a massive scale-up in infrastructure funding, particularly in power and transport. Zubairu highlighted that the energy gap remains the single greatest constraint on Nigerian manufacturing and SME growth.
The Africa Finance Corporation has historically focused on bridging this gap by financing critical infrastructure projects across the continent.
According to Zubairu, the transition to a larger economy cannot happen without a stable energy grid and the integration of renewable energy sources to lower the cost of doing business.
He also emphasised the role of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) as a tool for expansion. By scaling up manufacturing for the wider African market, Nigeria can increase its non-oil exports and stabilise its foreign exchange reserves.
The current federal government strategy has focused on removing fuel subsidies and unifying the exchange rate to attract investors. While these moves are necessary, Zubairu suggests they are merely foundational steps toward a much larger objective.
Investment in the gas sector, specifically for industrial feedstock and power generation, is seen as a critical bridge toward this higher GDP target.
The World Bank has previously warned that Nigeria needs significant improvements in its business environment and regulatory framework to sustain high growth rates.
Zubairu argues that the sheer scale of the Nigerian market should make it a primary destination for global capital, provided the government sets an ambition that reflects the country’s true potential.
Realising a $2 trillion economy would require an annual growth rate significantly higher than the current averages, necessitating an environment of absolute policy consistency.
The next phase of Nigeria’s economic planning will likely determine whether the government maintains its $1 trillion benchmark or adopts the more aggressive growth model proposed by the AFC chief.
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